Insight Focus
- Raw sugar futures reluctant to break above 24c/Ib.
- Speculators open equal number of long and short positions amid lack of clear price direction.
- The H/H white premium has weakened, currently trading at 138USD/mt.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures continues to trade sideways, reluctant to break above 24c/Ib.
In the past week, speculators have opened a similar number of long and short positions, unsure which direction to take given that the raw sugar market is currently caught between a bearish macro environment and bullish sugar fundamentals.
With the addition of 7.4k lots of long positions and 7.2k lots of short positions, the net spec position remains relatively unchanged at 23.3k lots.
With only a few weeks left until the Mar’24 expiry, the commercial participants have been busy increasing their cover.
With the No.11 having moved sideways (bad for producer hedging) for much of the last month producers have moved quickly to lock in prices with the market closer to 23.5c.
The No.11 forward curve remains backwardated throughout 2024 until Mar’25, when we may see some market stress due to supply constraints, before becoming backwardated again until Oct’26.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
The No.5 refined sugar futures has weakened slightly over the past week, trading around 660USD/mt last Friday.
Over the past week, speculators have opened up 4.7k lots of long positions, bringing the net spec position in refined sugar to 22.3k lots.
The No.5 forward curve remains backwardated through to Aug’25.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The H/H white premium has weakened in the past week, currently trading at 134USD/mt.
We think re-exports refiners need around 100-115USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar, therefore physical values should still be necessary to bridge this gap.
The refined sugar market is undersupplied for the majority of 2024, and this is reflected in comparatively strong K/K and Q/N white premiums which are both pushing toward 139USD/mt.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
