Insight Focus
- Global consumption in 2023/24 is at an all-time high, surpassing global production.
- Global per capita sugar stocks have dropped to their lowest point in over a decade.
- Meanwhile, in the UK, excessive rainfall has led to harvesting difficulties.
2023/24 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
Despite 12-year high prices, global sugar production remains right in the middle of its decade-long 160-190m tonne range, reaching 175.9m tonnes in 2023/24, up 400k tonnes from our previous update.
This increase in production is because weather conditions in both Centre-South (CS) and North-Northeast Brazil have been favourable, allowing mills to continue crushing cane. Depending on weather from now on, mills in CS Brazil could potentially make close to 40m tonnes of sugar, a level never achieved before.
Global Sugar Consumption
In 2023/24 we think that the world will consume just under 179m tonnes of sugar. This will be the highest on record and represents a 2.2m tonnes increase from the previous season.
If consumption continues to rise in tandem with population growth, we should see a 2m tonne increase each season.
Large Production Deficit
Sluggish global production growth coupled with record-high consumption has led to a 3m tonne shortfall in global sugar production.
We can see from the chart below that global per capita sugar stocks are at their lowest point in over a decade.
The last time global sugar production exceeded consumption was in 2021/22. Since then, sugar stocks around the world have fallen while the world’s population has increased.
Production Update: United Kingdom
In 2023/24, the UK is set to produce just over 1m tonnes of sugar, up 263k tonnes from the previous season.
This significant increase in output can be attributed to favourable weather conditions over the past year. Not only that, but there has been good news about this season’s sugar beet crop, with farmers reporting that the beets are larger.
That said, due to the increased rain in the last month or so, farmers have found it difficult to access their fields in order to harvest their crop.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
If you have any questions, please get in touch with us at Will@czapp.com.
