Insight Focus
- Both raw and refined sugar futures have traded sideways in the past week.
- Raw sugar speculators have increased their short positions for the first time in many months.
- The H/H white premium has strengthened, standing at 131USD/mt.
New York No.11 Raw Sugar Futures
The No.11 raw sugar futures contract is back up to a 12-year high, briefly reaching 28c/Ib in the middle of last week before falling back to 27.5c/Ib by Friday’s close.
By the latest CFTC COT report on the 24th of October, raw sugar consumer have added around 9.1k lots of hedges, whilst producers on the other hand have added just over 1k lots of new hedges.
Speculators were less active this week, with raw sugar speculators closing out 2k lots of long positions and increasing their spec short positions by 7k lots. As a result, the overall net spec position has decreased slightly to 178k lots.
With contracts strengthening across the board, the No.11 forward curve remains inverted through to Jul’26.
London No.5 Refined Sugar Futures
Similar to the No.11, the No.5 refined sugar futures has also been trading sideways over the past week, closing at 741USD/mt on Friday.
Despite sideways movement in refined sugar prices, they are the best they have been in years, and as a result, white sugar speculators have continued to increase their long position.
The No.5 forward curve continues to remain backwardated until May’25.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
The sugar white premium has moved sideways hovering around 131USD/mt over the last week – this is reflective of current tightness in the refined sugar market.
That said, we think re-exports refiners need around 100-110USD/mt above the No.11 to profitably produce refined sugar, therefore physical values should still be necessary to bridge this gap.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
