Insight Focus

  • Processed phosphate prices are going up in the Americas but stabilizing in Asia.
  • Potash prices in Brazil are going up on production curtailment in Canada due to strike at Vancouver Port.
  • Ammonia market is quiet and eyes are on August settlement price between yara and mosaic.

Global urea prices are going up due to tight supplies and incremental seasonal buying in Brazil and with a late flurry of demand in Australia although this week Australia has been quiet with no reported transactions. In addition, producers in the Middle East are pinning their hopes on an India tender within the next couple of weeks which could absorb around 1 million MT.

Current FOB pricing in the Middle East is around the USD 350-60 PMT range and producers are not in a hurry to sell. Egyptian values have increased from around USD 275 PMT FOB a few weeks ago to the latest sale of around USD 415 PMT FOB. Most of the product ends up in Europe covering trader shorts. Egypt is enjoying a 5.5% duty free access to the EU.

Eyes are now focusing on China now that the domestic market is waning and producers in China have expressed a desire to take part in a possible India tender which is expected to be announced in the next couple of weeks. China exported 1.1 million MT of urea in the January to June period this year up from 724,201 MT Y/Y.

Processed phosphate prices are increasing in the Americas while having stabilized east of Suez. Seasonal demand and increased affordability have seen MAP prices increase an average of USD 43 PMT in the last month with recent sales reported at USD 460-475 PMT CFR. India DAP prices appear flat with Chinese suppliers resisting further decreases. China exported 930,000 MT of DAP in June vs only 197,180 MT Y/Y. Total DAP exports of DAP from China for the January to June period was up 86% at 2.4 million MT.

Bangladesh has again postponed its private processed phosphate tender with rumours of foreign exchange issues. Next date for the tender has been set to July 27th.

Global potash prices have seen a mixed bag this week with prices in Brazil reaching USD 345 CFR. Strike action at Vancouver port has seen production curtailment in Canada of potash which is limiting supplies.

Pupuk Indonesia conducted a 300,000 MT import tender this week and BPC of Belarus is reported to have submitted offers of USD 307 PMT CFR the same as the contract price in China. Laos producers (Chinese) are said to have offered at USD 290 PMT CFR. None of the prices have been confirmed.

Potash imports in China January to June totalled 5.24 million MT up 28% Y/Y.

Ammonia markets both east and west of Suez and Europe have been quiet this week with no spot deals being reported. TTF month ahead gas prices in Europe have declined and are now between USD 8.5-9 mmBtu which makes ammonia production at the higher end of around USD 380-385.

With increased urea and nitrate prices in Europe the question is if Europe once again will start importing ammonia.

Stein Chingen Haugan

Stein C Haugan, boasting four decades of experience and an extensive global fertilizer network, founded Fertimetrics Pte Ltd in Singapore in June 2019. The company offers advisory, consultancy, and brokerage services aimed at helping businesses and individuals enhance their core competencies and create sustainable incremental value.

Stein’s fertilizer expertise encompasses senior management roles and board representation positions with Yara International ASA and Ma’aden Phosphate Company. He has also successfully established and managed fertilizer trading companies. Stein holds a master’s degree in business from the University of Oregon and has completed postgraduate studies at IMD.

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