Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy but no guarantee is offered by Technical Commentary or Mike Ellis against errors or omissions and no liability will be accepted for any trading based on the analysis and suggestions provided herein. This information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the designated recipient and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the written consent of Mike Ellis. Copyright © 2017 Technical Commentary.
For those seeking more than just analysis of the Dollar Index as a benchmark for currencies as a whole, this report looks at 8 major spot Forex pairings that make up the lions’ share of the vast global FX marketplace while ensuring that critical diversity key to the successful investor.
For more information please contact Michael here.
EURO / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
The EU climb faltered shy of a 61.8% Fib retracement (1.128) and has broken the 7-month uptrend. This pins the spotlight on 1.05 as a pivotal divide where a hefty new double top could form to intensify the fallout and attack a prior base under 1.01. At the bare minimum the EU must react back over the mid band (1.084) to ease the pressure.
JAPANESE YEN / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
Always skirting clear of a major monthly support at 125 in Q1, the US has gone on to pull the first half of ’23 into an offset dual bottom. This at least targets the small Q4 top shape beyond 145 before one might expect heavier going. Meantime only reeling back through the 138 base rim and oncoming mid band (137.4) would undercut.
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
Q2 efforts to push on from a double bottom failed to bite and the BP has slipped off its’ 7-month uptrend, only not as sharply as the EU. All the same, this creates risk on down to the next main support rung at 1.18 where a heftier top could form. Must jolt back over the mid band (1.247) to retrieve the trend derailment and maybe thereby stabilize.
SWISS FRANC / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
The Q2 gouge left the early ’21 low (0.876) unscathed and the US has ripped free of the 6-month downtrend. This opens passage back up to a clash with the mainstay 0.937 border of the big ’22 double top where the going should get far tougher. Otherwise only an abrupt twist back under 0.90 would undermine the footing to expose 0.88/0.876 again.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
Whittling away the 0.65’s has built the past 6-months into a ragged but still substantial H&S top wedged in under a prior even bigger H&S. The new top projects comfortably back down to the ’22 low at 0.617 so the outlook is bleak for the AD and only clawing back into the 0.66’s to pierce the mid band (0.664) would suggest any resuscitation.
BRAZILIAN REAL / US DOLLAR WEEKLY
The US has fought back off 4.90 for a second time but must dispatch the 5.10 resistance to really claim a turn and modest new Q2 base that could then seed further gains to the 5.30’s. While spinning the wheels shy of 5.10, keep close tabs on 4.90 as a confirming tripwire of a heftier ’22 top, little underneath until down in the 4.50’s.
EURO / JAPANESE YEN WEEKLY
The EU’s initial getaway from the inverse H&S was blocked at 152 and the second try higher has run into trouble a little sooner. This is endangering the mid band and 148.7 ledge nearby and breaking through would swivel back towards 146, threatening a new dual top that could present a serious challenge to the underlying base.
EURO / BRITISH POUND WEEKLY
From late ’22 through Q1 this year, the H&S top from ’20 continued to blunt EU efforts to escape topside and this lately saw the year-long uptrend broken and a new smaller H&S formed. That new top points back to 0.846 but there is first a respectable ledge at 0.855 to contest. Must at least punch clear of 0.872 to give any new signs of life.
Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy but no guarantee is offered by Technical Commentary or Mike Ellis against errors or omissions and no liability will be accepted for any trading based on the analysis and suggestions provided herein. This information is intended solely for the personal and confidential use of the designated recipient and may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the written consent of Mike Ellis. Copyright © 2017 Technical Commentary.
