Insight Focus
- The USDA has increased both cane and beet sugar production estimates for 2022/23.
- As a result, the US will produce the second highest amount of sugar on record.
- This takes some of the pressure off Mexico’s cane performance.
Concerns around a late-December freeze and planting delays last year are put to rest as the USDA raised both cane and beet sugar production numbers in its latest forecasts.
Cane Sugar Production To Reach Record High
The US is set to produce 8.41 million tonnes sugar for the 2022/23 season. 3.8m tonnes of cane sugar could be produced, a new record.
The increase in cane sugar production is mostly due to increased cane and sucrose yields this year.
Total production in Texas should decrease compared to last year due to a decrease in cane area.
However, this will be offset as production for both Louisiana and Florida should increase compared to last year.
Louisiana is looking to produce around 1.4 million tonnes of sugar, up 8% on 2021/22, due to an increase in area harvested and yields.
Reduced Need For Sugar Imports
Higher sugar production means that the US will need lower imports compared to 2021/22. This decrease should come from high-tier tariff imports and re-export imports.
The US is expecting to import a total of 3.10 million tonnes of sugar in 2022/23 to cover demand. Total sugar demand for the US is expected to increase slightly compared to 2021/22.
Most imports are expected to come from Mexico and TRQs which have both increased slightly compared to the previous season. This means, that the US continues to rely on Mexico’s cane crop performance to fulfil demand. So far, Mexico is looking at lower yields due to drought. If Mexican production takes a hit, then the US will have to increase their TRQ allocations to ensure sugar supply.
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