Insight Focus
- The No.11 has rallied back above 20c/lb.
- This rise was helped by spec buying.
- Both producers and consumers have continued hedging.
New York No.11 (Raw Sugar)
- In the week up to the 17th of May, the No.11 saw lows below 18.5c/lb and highs above 20c/lb – this has given opportunity for both consumers and producers to advance their hedging.
- Consumers added almost 19k lots of cover, whilst producers added over 53k lots as prices strengthened back above 20c/lb.
- 22k lots of spec buying helped drive prices upwards, reversing the trend of a declining net spec position seen in recent weeks.
- The No.11 forward curve is still slightly contango towards H’23, then backwardated across 2023.
London No.5 (White Sugar)
- The No.5 saw similar strength leading up to the 17th of May, with prices strengthening back up towards 560USD/mt
- White sugar speculators assisted the drive upwards, adding around 2k lots to their spec long.
- The white sugar forward curve remains backwardated across 2022 and 2023.
White Premium (Arbitrage)
- With No.5 strengthening more than the No.11, the white premium has widened to just below 120USD/mt.
- At this level we think more re-export refiners should be able to operate profitably.
For a more detailed view of the sugar futures and market data, please refer to the data appendix below.
No.11 (Raw Sugar) Appendix
No.5 (White Sugar) Appendix
White Premium Appendix
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