Insight Focus
- We think the world will produce 176.1mmt of sugar this season, down 1.7mmt from our last update.
- This fall comes despite India’s larger cane crop and record pace of sugar production.
- The deficit should narrow next season, with Indian and Thai cane crops set to climb on strong returns.
Sugar Surplus Shrinks for 2021/22
We think the world will produce 176.1m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, down 1.7m tonnes from our last update.
With this, the global surplus has narrowed by 1.5m tonnes.
Next season, strong returns for farmers in India and Thailand should mean cane acreage increases in both countries. This will put 2022/23 global sugar production at 176.1m tonnes, up 2.5m tonnes since the last update.
Global Sugar Consumption to Fall This Season
We think the world will consume 173.6m tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, down 100k tonnes from February’s Statshot. This is largely because Thai consumption is set to fall.
Regional Production
Regional Updates
India should produce 32.5m tonnes of sugar this season, up nearly 2m tonnes year on year, even though more cane is being diverted towards ethanol.
Warm weather and a larger cane area means its crushing pace is currently better than it was in the record 2018/19 season.
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
Ask the Analyst: How Strong Indian Sugar Exports Might Shake Global Trade
