The Delta Variant is Spreading Fast in China

  • We previously thought Chinese sugar consumption would recover due to the pace of vaccination.
  • However, the highly contagious Delta variant was recently identified in Nanjing (Jiangsu Province).
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  • In just 10 days, it had been identified in a further 22 cities, splayed across 10 provinces.
  • This has resulted in more lockdowns and we’ve seen hospitality venues close in these areas, in an effort to reduce the spread.
  • Movement in and out of Nanjing City has also been minimised through renewed travel restrictions.
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  • We therefore no longer think Chinese sugar consumption will rebound strongly until the outbreak is under control again.

Chinese Sugar Consumption Going Forward

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  • However, sugar consumption may dip in the remaining summer months and forthcoming public holidays as social gatherings reduce.
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  • In the short term, all eyes are on China’s mooncake producers, which usually require 100k tonnes of sugar a year.
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  • Some of these have already cut their production targets as they anticipate weaker demand on the back of fresh restrictions.
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  • Mooncake sales were impressive in 2020, totalling RMB 20.52 billion (up 4.3% year-on-year), with most restrictions eased.
  • We don’t think demand will be as strong this year, given the current situation.
  • China’s catering revenue, which had recovered to pre-COVID levels prior to the surge in cases, may in fact slow as other settings that provoke sugar consumption also quieten down.
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  • Of course, it all depends on how long it takes the Government to get this latest outbreak under control.
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Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined CZ in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform CZ App. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of CZ App in China – CZ App WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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