- Thailand’s cane crop should rebound next season.
- The mills could therefore produce 10.3mmt of sugar, up 2.73mmt year-on-year.
- With COVID still suppressing consumption, its export availability should increase.
Thai Sugar Production to Rebound in 2021/22
- We think Thailand will produce 10.3m tonnes of sugar, up 2.73m tonnes year-on-year.
- This is because it should crush 93.7m tonnes of cane in 2021/22, up 27m tonnes year-on-year.
- Thailand’s received plenty of rain so far this year, following years of drought, which has helped cane yields.
- However, these rains could dilute Thailand’s sucrose yields next season.
- We currently think they’ll average 11%, down slightly from last year.
- To combat this the mills may start to harvest cane as late as possible, allowing yields to strengthen slightly.
What Does This Mean for Exports?
- COVID is still causing problems in Thailand and social restrictions remain prominent.
- We therefore think Thailand will consume 2.25m tonnes of sugar, down 100k tonnes year-on-year.
- This leaves 3.24m tonnes of raw sugar available to export, up 1.83m tonnes from this season’s 16-year low.
- It’ll also leaves 3.46m tonnes of white sugar available to export, up 1.1m tonnes year-on-year.
- This should mean Thailand exports more raws to Asian countries again, notably South Korea.
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