We think Guatemala will produce 2.8m tonnes of sugar in 2020/21; its highest production in two seasons.
This comes as the country has been graced with optimal weather for cane development throughout the year.
We think bulk raw sugar exports will continue to reduce as producers prioritise the production of value-added bagged sugar.

Optimal Weather Boosts Guatemalan Sugar Production

Guatemala should produce 2.83m tonnes of sugar next season, up 50k tonnes year-on-year.
With this, production sits just 120k tonnes behind the record set in 2018/19.

The year-on-year production increase comes as a result of the increased rainfall seen in Guatemala, particularly between May and September this year.
Precipitation levels during this period were higher than they have been for the last five years.

The only reason we think next season’s production will fail to reach record levels is because it has been hotter than it was in 2018/19.
This was especially prevalent between January and May, where it was far hotter than it had been in previous years.

And in April, Guatemala had its hottest and driest April for the last five years.
This will have hindered the canes’ performance and reduced yields.

Exports Increase with Production

Guatemala’s increased sugar production means it could export up to 1.9m tonnes in 2020/21, up 7.4k tonnes from this season.
The majority of this sugar will be shipped in bags and include raws for direct consumption, low quality whites and refined sugar.

This is something we have seen happening over the last five years, as Guatemalan producers believe it adds value due to its easier handling.
As such, there has been a steep decline in Guatemala’s bulk raw sugar exports to the world market.

With this decline, preferential markets have increased in significance.
The US and Taiwan account for 25% of Guatemala’s sugar exports, as it has access via Free Trade Agreements.
These countries therefore remain a key source of Guatemala’s returns.
However, Canada has been Guatemala’s main destination for the last five years due its close proximity allowing easy access.
This will likely remain the case whilst bulk raw sugar exports stay low.

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Stephanie Rodriguez

Stephanie graduated from Babson College in 2020, with a bachelor’s degree in Operations Management and Data Analytics. She joined CZ in 2020 for a one year internship where she focused on developing dashboards, content and expanding our network in the Americas (excluding Brazil). Stephanie is responsible for writing content and capturing data for the Americas (excluding Brazil), presenting our market view to clients, and working on different consultancy projects.