As we know, markets are shaped by supply and demand.
In order to understand the major trade flows and how it all fits together, we need to look at who produces what and where they are, together with who uses what and where they are.
Let’s firstly tackle the former, by looking closely at the world’s largest wheat producers and exporters.

The World’s Largest Wheat Producers and Exporters

China and India

The two most populous countries in the world, China and India, produce huge amounts of wheat. Unsurprisingly, they also consume what they produce, or just add it to their already large stockpiles.

China expects its year-end 2021 stocks to amount to 162mmt (151mmt in 2020), while India’s will amount to 31mmt (24mmt in 2020). The combined stocks for these two countries are due to exceed 60% of the total global wheat stocks in 2021 (314.87mmt). Despite their large production, they are still not exporters of note, due to their large domestic requirements.

The European Union

The largest exporting nations are well spread geographically to compete on the world market. The crown for biggest export shipments changes from year to year.

2019/20 has seen the EU take the top spot with an estimated 38mmt of wheat exports, significantly up from the previous 23mmt in 2018/19. With what will no doubt be a much reduced 2020 harvest, the crown will be lost back to Russia in 2020/21.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia has become known as the dominant global exporter of wheat in recent years, returning to the top of the tree with anticipated levels of 36mmt in 2020/21.

Ukraine is an equally aggressive seller and plans to export a slightly reduced 17.5mmt in 2020/21 as a result of a smaller harvest.

United States of America

The country historically known as the big wheat exporter has fallen off its perch as acres reduce and Russia has increased production and sales abroad. 2019 saw the smallest US wheat acreage for the 2020 harvest since records began over 100 years ago.

Australia

The last three years of drought have seriously dampened down the significance of Australia on the world wheat market. Good rains in early 2020 are putting a lid on recent problems and returning the country to its more rightful place on the exporters’ ladder.

Argentina

As a good geographical fit for shippers, Argentina is never far away from being a competitor to many of the big importers. The large expected 2020 harvest may be offset by the economic woes of late if taxes interfere.

The Major Wheat Producing and Exporting Nation and Regions (in million metric tonnes)

Jolyon Hobby

Growing up on a Wiltshire farm sparked my passion for agriculture. With a BSc Hons in Agriculture and Land Management, I farmed for three years before diving into a 20-year career in the UK grain trade.

In the past eight years, my focus has shifted to the agri-food supply chain, where I focus on understanding the impact of commodity price volatility and transport logistics on the food chain. My expertise now lies in analysing global wheat markets and providing support to businesses across the entire spectrum – from farm to retailer.