• Colombia’s locust population has grown following its particularly rainy April and May.
• Whilst locusts have caused worry across South America this year, we do not think they are a threat to Colombia’s cane fields.
• However, the Colombian sugar market is especially vulnerable to any unforeseen disruptions, so further growth in the locust population needs monitoring.

What are Locusts?

• Locusts are a type of grasshopper and are often solitary insects that do not significantly impact their ecosystem.
• However, in certain circumstances, they can form a swarm consisting of millions of locusts, capable of covering hundreds of square km.
• When this happens, they are hugely destructive to crops and agriculture as they travel great distances.
• This has made the headlines when it occurred in the East Coast Africa and, more recently, in India.

• It has recently been reported that Colombia’s locust population is growing.
• On top of this, there are fears that the swarms could migrate into Colombia from Brazil.
• However, these worries are still premature as locusts are native to Colombia and have rarely caused serious damage.
• On top of this, they are usually found in the East of the country, whilst the cane fields are near the West Coast.

• Until we see the locusts moving West or foreign swarms reach Colombia, the cane fields will remain untroubled.
• However, watch this situation closely, as the domestic market is vulnerable to sharp rises if supply faces disruption.

How Could the Crop Be Affected?

• Conversely to most cane crops, the Colombian crop harvest occurs all year round.
• This means the domestic supply is more dependent on immediate production as opposed to large domestic stocks.

• Historical prices are susceptible to production difficulties.
• For example, prices regularly spike when heavy rains in April, May, and November affect the harvest process.

• If locusts were to swarm the cane fields, it is unlikely the cane would be significantly damaged.
• There are various solutions that can protect the crop from serious damage, such as pesticide spraying via airplane.
• However, it is possible the response to this disruption will halt harvesting efforts at least for a short while.
• This would likely cause a squeeze on supply as the immediate demand would not be met for a short while.

The Interactive Data Section

• You can monitor the Colombian Crop Progress in the Interactive Data Section.