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  • India will likely produce 26.5m tonnes of sugar this season; this is 6.5m tonnes lower year-on-year (YoY). 
  • This gives India a production surplus of 500k tonnes. 
  • With other key producing regions out of action due to drought, Uttar Pradesh must provide 75% of the sugar left to produce.

India’s Total Production: Starting to Slow Down

  • Indian sugar production (to date) is 21% lower than it was this time last season, just shy of 19.5m tonnes. 
  • The end-of-season sugar production will fall 33m tonnes to 26.5m tonnes. 
  • This year, 453 mills have been in operation, compared to 520 last season; 15% of these mills have now stopped crushing.

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  • With cane running out in Maharashtra and Karnataka, most of the sugar left to produce will come from Uttar Pradesh.

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  • The small production surplus combined with 5m tonnes of exports means Indian sugar stocks will decrease for the first time in two years.

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Uttar Pradesh: Best Production in Over Five Years!

  • Production is on track to reach a record 12.7m tonnes, which will make up almost half of India’s total production.
  • 7.6m tonnes of sugar has been produced so far and the production pace remains high; no mills have shut down yet.
  • This production surge stems from the large cane acreage of high-yielding cane.

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Maharashtra: Production Halves

  • Maharashtran (MH) sugar production has just exceeded 5m tonnes (45% lower YoY).
  • This is because drought reduced the cane availability and meant 25% of mills were unable to even open this season.
  • The cane has now started to run out, forcing 25 mills to stop operating.
  • We think the mills will continue to shut down quickly now so Maharashtra will not produce much more sugar this season.
  • This is the first time Maharashtra will not be India’s largest sugar producer since the 16/17 season.

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Karnataka: Production Slowing Fast

  • Sugar production in Karnataka (KN) is 20% behind last season’s rate, with just 3.2m tonnes of sugar produced so far.
  • As with Maharashtra, cane yields suffered due to extensive periods of dry weather.
  • There has been a large drop in fortnightly production as the cane has started to run out.
  • Half of the 63 operational mills have now closed for the season.

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Czapp’s Interactive Data Section

To access this data in our Interactive Data section, select the tile highlighted in yellow below…

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…and you’ll be taken to the latest crop production report.

Ben Seed

Ben joined CZ’s analysis team in 2016 on a year long internship before returning to the University of Bath to complete an Economics Degree. Since re-joining in August 2018, Ben has led the data insights team in expanding the range and quality of data available internally and to clients through CZ App. Ben spent 3 months in CZ’s Singapore and Bangkok offices to expand his knowledge of the region and help roll out the latest data processes. He is now also responsible for the Sugar Market View published each week on CZ App.

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