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  • The February WASDE shows a reduction in Mexico’s import estimate for 2019/20.
  • This change is not binding towards the total quota allocation; next month’s release will confirm the total Mexican quota.
  • The TRQ re-allocation we saw this week is confirmed by an increase in expected TRQ imports in 2019/20.

February WASDE Release

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  • This month’s release has reduced expected Mexican imports by 100k tonnes.
  • It may be an indication that the USDA do not expect Mexico to comply with their current quota of 1.8m short tons.
  • However, the reduction is not binding and the March WASDE will define the final quota for Mexican imports to the USA.
  • The Mexican crop has been behind after the drought, but the final production estimates are still varied.
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  • The effect of this reduction is partly offset by the increase in expected TRQ sugar imports.
  • This is the result of the re-allocation of quotas.
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  • The USDA can expand their total TRQ volumes if Mexico confirm they cannot fulfil their final quota estimate.
  • This would allow them to ensure they reach the desired 13.5% annual stocks to use ratio.

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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