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  • Russian production is on track to be at least 7m tonnes, which is 10% above the previous record.
  • There will be a substantial production surplus within Russia of at least 1.1m tonnes.
  • Russia will become a significant whites exporter, from being a large scale importer just three years ago.

Large Production Surplus – Export Pace Increasing 

  • As we have highlighted before, Russia will have the availability to export a significant volume of white sugar over the next year. 
  • The monthly export pace in Russia has started to increase with monthly exports of over 50k tonnes per month. 

Russian Export Pace Increasing 

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  • However, we think that due to logistics Russia will struggle to export more than 800k tonnes. 
  • Inland railway freight is slow and expensive whilst ports lack the infrastructure to efficiently handle large shipments. 
  • See how this compares to previous years and the impact on stocks via our new interactive data section on Czapp.
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  • We now forecast Russia will produce 7m tonnes of sugar during the 19/20 campaign, 1.1m tonnes above consumption. 
  • This is 0.6m tonnes higher than our previous forecast and a record for Russia by over 10%. 

Russian Production Setting New High 

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  • As of mid-October, production has crossed 3m tonnes, 0.3m tonnes more than last year (10%). 
  • Yet the harvested area to date is 12% below at the same time in 2018. 
  • This is because the average beet yield (44.3 t/ha) is 25% higher than the last season. 
  • However, we estimate that sugar yields will only increase by 18% compared to 2018. 
  • This is because sugar content was below average during the beet testing. 

Sugar Yield Also a Record 

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Why Have Beet Yields Been Better Than Expected? 

  • One factor that led to the increase in beet yield was that beet plantings per ha increased by 6%.

Russian Beet Population 

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  • The weather and soil has been slightly drier than usual, which has been perfect for harvesting conditions. 
  • However, it was not so dry that the beet’s growth was impacted that poorly. 
  • We think that there has been significant investment in harvesting and processing in an effort to increase yields and reduce costs to make Russia more competitive in the world market. 

Ben Seed

Ben joined CZ’s analysis team in 2016 on a year long internship before returning to the University of Bath to complete an Economics Degree. Since re-joining in August 2018, Ben has led the data insights team in expanding the range and quality of data available internally and to clients through CZ App. Ben spent 3 months in CZ’s Singapore and Bangkok offices to expand his knowledge of the region and help roll out the latest data processes. He is now also responsible for the Sugar Market View published each week on CZ App.

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