- We think EU production may fall below last year’s drought affected crop, based on initial beet tests.
- Beet tests in Germany and Belgium show below average yields.
- The EU will be in deficit for the second successive year.
Disappointing Crop
- We think that EU production will reach 17.4m tonnes in 19/20, well below consumption (See Czapp sugar data).
- This is the second successive season where EU production will fail to meet consumption. Therefore, the EU will need to be a net importer.
- The first beet tests in Germany show below average beet yields due to record temperatures and below average rainfall in June and July.
German Beet Yield
- Conversely, sugar content is high, which may indicate a distressed crop storing energy (from sunlight) as sucrose rather than using it for growth.
- We think that some plant tops are deficient meaning the ability to generate more energy from sunlight diminishes.
- This ultimately leads to lower sugar yields.
German Sugar Content
- This is what we have seen from Germany’s first beet test: the theoretical sugar yield is 20% below the 5 year average in the Wetterau (Central) region of Germany.
German Sugar Yield
- We are seeing a similar story in Belgium with Raffinerie Tirlemontoise reporting a theoretical beet yield down sharply compared to last year at 7.73 t/ha from 8.84 t/ha whilst ISCAL Sugar reported an unchanged yield YoY.
- With around a month of growing left, we estimate yields in line with last year’s poor performing crop.
- The exception to this is the UK where the heat and dryness has been less extreme, but we still forecast yields below the 5-year average.
Estimated Yields
