Insight Focus
2024/25 global sugar production will be the second highest on record. This is thanks to increased output from the EU and Thailand. How is Thailand’s cane looking?
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We believe the world will produce 187.4m tonnes of sugar in the 2024/25 season. This will be the second highest on record, tailing shortly behind the 2017/18 season.
This is an early estimate that is dependent on good weather in many of the world’s major sugar-producing regions. There are concerns about the cane performance in Centre-South Brazil (the world’s largest sugar producer) due to dry and hot weather over the summer.
Although it rained in April, it was low by historical standards and the rainfall was sparse in some regions, meaning the concerns around the cane quality remain just as high.
The monsoon season is also fast approaching in India as it’s due to start next month. A good season of rainfall would be beneficial for cane growth.
If we see decent levels of rainfall this season, agricultural yields could be higher, as reservoir levels are currently low, thus allowing for an increased sugar output next season.
Global Sugar Consumption
Global sugar consumption has risen continuously in line with population growth and will exceed 180m tonnes in 2024/25.
Large Production Surplus in 2024/25
Although global consumption is at an all-time high, increased output from CS Brazil, India, and the EU could result in a large production surplus of 5.4m tonnes.
Production Update: Thailand
In the 2024/25 season we expect Thailand to produce 12.1m tonnes of sugar which is an increase from the previous season.
This growth is driven by higher cane prices paid to producers, incentivising an expansion in the planting of sugarcane. The lack of rain in late April raised concerns on the negative effect it would have on cane growth. There was a chance that farmers would have to uproot the sugarcane and replant it with cassava instead.
However, recent reports of good rainfall in line with the start of the monsoon have meant that the cane has been able to recover, and farmers have started to add fertilisers.
Other Sugar Producers at a Glance…
