There was immediate pressure applied to No.11 with March’24 pushed down to a new 2-week low at 27.01 following the opening, though buying quickly kicked in to defend the 27 handle, The turnaround over the next two hours was stark with March’24 finding new support from day traders to reach 27.42, the market suitably encouraged by their buying to maintain the rally and remain within proximity of the highs as noon approached. The recent problems then manifested however with the funds showing no desire to join the buying, and so as the US morning got underway the losses eroded away to leave the market back around overnight levels and feeling directionless. This led to a malaise through the following hours with light efforts to push in either direction failing to garner the support needed to break beyond morning parameters, leaving the hours to tick by slowly. All remained quiet heading into the close, and while some late buying saw a marginally higher close at 27.19 it marks a third successive settlement value in the teens while the market searches for its next movement. March’24 began its tenure at the top of the board with some choppy trading either side of overnight levels, though this in itself will have been welcomed by longs with there being no immediate sign that we would continue the lower path set so far this week. Increasingly it became the upside that was attracting the interest with March’24 moving up to $739.70, though the higher levels proved to be short-lived as the lack of more meaningful buying saw the move wane. This allowed values to retreat to the morning range and on limited volume the picture calmed until mid-afternoon when some fresh selling emerged in an effort to test yesterday’s lower levels and generate fresh movement. Lows were registered at $730.30 as the efforts failed to test $729.00, and with news lacking and interest dropping away things quickly calmed to leave the final hours spent tracking quietly sideways. Though the movements there was a firmer showing from the white premiums with March/March’24 holding around $135.00, though here also the volumes were minimal. Light closing buying (position squaring) minimised the losses and ensured a settlement away from the lows at $733.70. As expected, a total of 5,255 lots (262,750mt) was tendered against the Dec’23 expiry. 

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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