Mar 21 – Sugar No.11
There was buying from the get go this morning as Friday’s failure to close above 15c was quickly forgotten and instead we were soon looking to push beyond the 15.23 recent high mark. The buying again looked to be generated from specs keen to capitalise upon the technical picture and continue higher and it was not long before their efforts were rewarded with a meaningful break of said recent highs with saw March’21 surge upward to 15.47. This move was accompanied by wider macro strength upon continuing good news with regards to covid-19 vaccines and while the 15.50 area was showing some steady scale selling to provide resistance the market remained firm with a period of very comfortable consolidation. The US morning brought further fresh buying to the fore and we continued to push through some of the scale selling though progress was understandably trickier than at the lower levels despite a continuing USDBRL rate in the low 5.40’s restricting the volume of pricing from the Brazilians. A small mid-afternoon setback was merely a pre-cursor to another push which this time saw March’21 reach 15.58, a mere 16 points short of the March’21 life of contract high recorded in April 2018. The final couple of hours saw values remain a small way below beneath the highs while spread values continued to firm with March/May’21 holding comfortably around 1.04 points to be approaching its own highs once more having recently fallen back to 0.61 points. MOC selling sent March’21 back beneath 15.50 though whether this was related to end of day position squaring or the Dec’20 option expiry this evening was unclear as we concluded a strong performance at 15.47
March 21 – Sugar No. 5
The market began the day trading higher and soon accelerated upward through the 410.00 area and into the clear air that only new life of contract highs bring. Within the first 30 minutes March’20 had printed almost $10 higher at $416.50 with spec buyers continuing to push the market to further add to their large 28,599 lot long position shown on Friday night’s COT report. Following some brief consolidation a further wave of buying emerged to push March’21 through $420.00 and though these levels saw some better selling which limited progress there was no real sign that we would fall back in any significant way. Further encouragement arrived in the form of more positive covid-19 vaccine reports and with the macro now folly onside prices remained stable through into the afternoon. It was not just outright values that were strong with sweeping gains seen across the spread board with March’21, May’21 and Aug’21 all stretching out relatively against the flatter back end of the board, the nearby March/May’21 up by $3.80 at $15 while March’21/March’22 was more than $11 firmer at $38.20. White premiums saw a steady performance also with March/March’21 around $80 and May/May’21 pushing towards $90, though further down the board any gains were rather more modest. The latter part of the session was played out just shy of the highs with a very strong technical picture cemented as March’21 settled at $420.80.
As anticipated the Dec’20 saw 12,366 lots (618,300mt) tendered with details shown in the table below Delivering are Antei (ITL & MCQ), Tereos (PFU) and Sucden (SCD) with Wilmar (PFU) and Man (ECM & MCQ) the receivers.
ICE Futures U.S. Sugar No.11 Contract
ICE Europe White Sugar Futures Contract
