A La Niña looks increasingly likely for CS Brazil, meaning rainfall could be poor in Q1’22.
This is the last thing CS Brazil’s needs following the 2021/22 drought.
Q1’22 will be an essential period for cane development, so poor rains could limit any potential rebound.

A La Niña Looks Increasingly Likely for CS Brazil

Some meteorologists now believe there’s an 87% chance CS Brazil gets hit by a La Niña in the coming year – two months ago this number was 60%.
This is concerning, as it could result in below-average rainfall through Q1’22, hindering cane development.

What Does This Mean for CS Brazil’s 2022/23 Cane Crop?

CS Brazil’s cane production was poor in 2021/22, as the region was hit by both frost and drought.
The result was reflected in lowest agricultural yields of the decade, down by around 14% year-on-year.

This year’s unfavourable weather conditions, coupled with the increased likelihood of a La Niña could mean CS Brazil’s 2022/23 cane crush could be lower than our current estimate of 540 mmt.

CS Brazil’s rainfall was 55% above the historic average in October.
Although this will have been beneficial for cane, no rains are important as those that fall in Q1 next year.
This is an essential period for cane development, as these rains are responsible for around 70% of the plant’s water requirement.
So, if rainfall is below average in Q1’22, CS Brazil could crush just 500m tonnes of cane in 2022/23, making it the smallest volume since 2011/12.

On the other hand, we must remember that weather forecasts aren’t the most reliable and the likelihood of a La Niña could reduce.
For this reason, we stand by our more positive outlook that CS Brazil will crush 540m tonnes of cane in 2022/23.

In short, a La Niña cools the oceans, which, in turn, affects rainfall and temperatures.
In Brazil, the phenomenon has historically intensified rainfall in the North and Northeast regions and weakened it in the South.
As for the Southeast and Midwest, they do not present a characteristic change of pattern in precipitation and temperature.
However, they historically tend to have dry and mild temperatures.
For context, two La Niñas have been recorded in Brazil across the last two years; one in 2020 and another in 2021.
In the first case, CS Brazil’s precipitation dropped 23% below the historic average.
And in 2021, we think rainfall will end up 28% below the historic average – according to the latest forecast.