- The world should produce 38.8m tonnes of tomato paste this year, down 400k tonnes from 2020.
- China and the US have both suffered tricky weather conditions.
- Prices are climbing as supply tightens and packaging becomes more expensive.
Chinese Tomato Paste Production Hit by Floods
- China, the world’s leading tomato supplier, should produce 4.8m tonnes of tomato in 2021/22.
- This is up 200k tonnes from 2019/20, but parts of the country have recently endured severe flooding.
- This could mean plantings are down with cropland needing time to recover.
- If they are, Chinese tomato prices could be 6-7% higher year-on-year as supply tightens.
- Packaging costs could increase by around 30% as steel continues to rise.
- China’s exports have held strong this year, despite the recent flooding and its continued COVID troubles.
- Most tomato paste shipments have gone to Asia, Africa and the Middle East, but general shipments to Europe were up 131% year-on-year in H1’21, with tomato-based products making a frequent appearance in the line-up.
US Tomato Paste Production Hit by Drought
- From June to July next year, there may not be any tomato paste available in the US.
- The drought in California has harmed the crop and led to a poorer harvest.
- Some farmers have also turned to plant other, more drought resilient, crops.
- With this, it’s been tougher than usual for US processors to source tomatoes.
- This is bad news as California produces more than 90% of America’s canned tomatoes and satisfies a third of global demand.
News from Other Parts of the World
- Most European processors have reportedly sold out of tomato paste, with high quality product hitting the market.
- Yields look good for Turkish processors, with prices now climbing to reflect this.
- Egyptian production is also on the rise, with brix and yields looking very good.
- The same cannot be said for Ukraine, with production falling to 800-820k tonnes on the back of a very wet and stormy June.
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