Here, Fruit Juice Focus shares its production forecasts for multiple fruit crops around the world.
The picture looks less positive for orange than it did back in May.
Things are looking up for lemon producers across the board.

Floridian Orange Production

The USDA’s final forecast on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop is 52.8 million boxes. The total is comprised of 22.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 30.1 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up slightly from the June forecast.

Brazil’s Orange Crop in 2020/21

The commercial area of the state of São Paulo and the western part of Minas Gerais should produce 294 million boxes. This projection is based on the Defence Fund for Citriculture’s (Fundecitrus) first citrus crop forecast.

The USDA projects total Brazilian FCOJ (65 brix equivalent), production for 2021/22 at 1.048 million tonnes, an increase of 12% compared with orange juice production for 2020/21.

The Sao Paulo industry is expected to process 250 million boxes of oranges for orange juice production (170 million boxes for FCOJ and 80 million boxes for NFC production), accounting for 952 000 tonnes of juice (640 000 tonnes and 312 000 tonnes of FCOJ and NFC respectively). Other producing states should deliver 24 million boxes, accounting for 96 000 tonnes of juice.

The total Brazilian FCOJ 65 brix equivalent production estimate for 2020/21 has been revised slightly downward to 938 000 tonnes, a decrease of 27,000 tonnes compared to the previous year.

Orange juice figures include NFC production for exports converted to FCOJ. There is no official estimate for NFC supply and demand in Brazil.

The 2021/22 forecast for total Brazilian FCOJ 65 brix equivalent exports is 1.05 million tonnes, a slight increase of 18 000 tonnes from the previous year (1.032 million tonnes). The Sao Paulo industry should contribute 1.01 million tonnes.

Stocks

Ending stocks for 2021/22 (30 June 2022) are forecast at 83 000 tonnes, down 72 000 tonnes relative to revised stocks for 2020/21 (155 000 tonnes). USDA stock figures include supplies in storage tanks of orange juice facilities (processing plants and port terminals) in Brazil, they do not include stocks owned by Brazilian companies abroad.

According to the Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters (CitrusBR), global Brazilian orange juice inventories are estimated at 310 759 tonnes (66 Brix) on 30 June 2021, a drop of 160 379 tonnes relative to stocks on 30 June 2020 (471 138 tonnes).

CitrusBR global inventories include orange juice in storage tanks at processing plants and port terminals in Brazil, as well as stocks abroad (vessels and port facilities worldwide).

European Citrus and Orange Juice Production

In 2020/21, EU citrus production is projected to rebound 10% compared with the previous season to 11.7 million tonnes. Favourable weather conditions in the top EU citrus-producing countries contributed to the recovery, says the USDA.

EU orange juice production in 2020/21 is forecast at 89 228 tonnes, a rise of almost 25% compared with the previous year.

Spain is the major orange processor in the EU followed by Italy, and around 20% of Spanish orange production is used in processing, mainly into fresh orange juice.

In 2020/21, EU orange juice consumption is forecast to grow slightly as a result of increased domestic supplies and growing consumer interest for immune-strengthening products during the COVID-19 crisis.

The EU is a net importer of orange juice. However, during the last decade, EU imports of orange juice declined by 6% due to the growth in production and the general downward trend in orange juice consumption.

Brazil’s Orange Juice Production in 2020/21 (and carry into 2021/22)

Total orange juice production for the 2020/21 season in Brazil was 837 465 tonnes (FCOJ 66 brix equivalent, this is 30% lower than the 1 202 702 tonnes produced during the 2019/20 season, says CitrusBR.

Global inventories of FCOJ equivalent in the hands of CitrusBR members are estimated to be at 310 759 tonnes on 30 June 2021. If confirmed, this projection will represent a decrease of 160 379 tonnes on the 471 138 tonnes in the hands of CitrusBR members on 30 June 2020.

Turkish Orange Production

In 2020/21, orange production in Turkey is estimated to decrease to 1.3 million tonnes, which is 23% lower than in 2019/20 (1.7 million tonnes), due to excessive hot weather conditions in May 2020 during the blooming period. Volumes for processing are also projected to decline in 2020/21, but to a lesser degree, to 105 000 tonnes from 110 000 tonnes the year before.

South African Orange and Orange Juice Production

The production of oranges in South Africa is estimated to increase by 2% to 1.65 million tonnes in 2020/21, from 1.62 million tonnes the year before. The USDA projects that 285 000 tonnes of oranges will be processed in 2020/21, against 282 000 tonnes the year before.

The production of orange juice is estimated to increase by 1% to 50 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 49 494 tonnes in 2019/20.

Concentrated orange juice accounts for at least 90% of the total orange juice produced in South Africa. The South African citrus industry prioritizes the export of fresh citrus, and only processes the fruit that does not meet export standards. The USDA estimates that exports of orange juice in 2020/21 will increase significantly to 40 000 tonnes, from 29 549 tonnes the year before.

Moroccan Orange and Orange Juice Production

Orange production in 2020/21 in Morocco is forecast at 1.10 million tonnes, against 806 000 tonnes the year before. The USDA expects the volume of oranges for processing to reach 50 000 tonnes, compared with 35 000 tonnes in 2019/20. This will equate to 5 000 tonnes of orange juice (65 brix equivalent) in 2020/21, against 3 500 tonnes the year before.

Chilean Apple Production

Commercial apple production in Chile in 2021 is expected to fall to 1.095 million tonnes 5% lower than the 1.115 million tonnes produced the previous year.

New Zealand Apple Production

Total apple production in New Zealand for 2020/21 is forecast at 543 000 tonnes, 8% lower than the year before.

Floridian Grapefruit Production

The USDA’S forecast for Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 4.10 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 620 000 boxes are white, and 3.48 million boxes are the red varieties.

South African Grapefruit Production

The production of grapefruit in South Africa is estimated to increase by 8% to 373 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 344 626 tonnes the previous year.

On average, 29% of total grapefruit produced is used for processing. The USDA estimates that the volume of grapefruit delivered for processing will increase by 12% to 105 000 tonnes in 2020/21, from 94 000 tonnes the year before. Grapefruit is processed to juice and concentrate, the majority of which is exported to Europe.

Argentinian Lemon Production

Lemon production in 2021 in Argentina is forecast at 1.15 million tonnes, against 1.49 million tonnes in 2020. The same report projected the volume of lemons for processing at 831 000 tonnes, compared with 1.08 million tonnes the year before.

EU Lemon Production

EU lemon production in 2020/21 is forecast to increase by almost 12% on the previous year to 1.6 million tonnes.

Turkish Lemon Production

In 2020/21, lemon production in Turkey reached 1.1million tonnes, which is 13% higher than during the 2019/20 season (950 000 tonnes). Lemons earmarked for the processing industry in 2020/21 are expected to remain unchanged on the previous year at 50 000 tonnes.

Chilean Grape Production

Commercial grape production in Chile in 2020/21 is expected to decrease to 615 000 tonnes, 21% lower than the 780 000 tonnes produced the previous year.

Chinese Peach, Nectarine and Grape Production

China’s peach and nectarine production is estimated at 16 million tonnes in 2021 (Jan-Dec), an increase of nearly 7% from the previous year. Cherry production is forecast at 600 000 tonnes in 2021/22 (Apr 2021-Mar 2022), an increase of 15% from 2020/21.