India is the world’s largest mango producer, accounting for around 50% of global pulp production each year (400k tonnes).
However, this year’s drought and COVID-induced labour shortages could mean its supply is reduced.
India’s Alphonso season is underway and the Totapuri season will begin the second week of June.

Indian Alphonso Mango Production

India is home to the Alphonso and Totapuri varieties (among others).
This year, several Alphonso regions have been hit by drought, meaning flowering could take between six and eight months.
Flowering has reportedly been staggered, which suggests there’s some inconsistency amongst the fruits’ maturity.

As you can see above, India’s Alphonso production takes place in the Western and Southern part of the country.
We think yields will be poorest in Bangalore, Ramanagar and Mysore (the South), where farmers fear losses of up to 20%.
With this, just 40% of the crop could be available for processing into Alphonso Puree.
This could cause problems as demand is strong now COVID has increased consumers’ desire to adopt healthier diets, and because the product is irreplaceable in most of its recipes.

New crop offers for Alphonso should be announced by mid-May and producers will mostly be offering on an FOB basis, with higher CFR levels, given the expensive ocean freight out of India, which won’t likely improve anytime soon.
We also think the weakening Indian Rupee and more expensive packaging costs (up 40% YoY) will mean mango prices are higher in 2021.

Totapuri Production

India’s Totapuri harvest is due to commence in Andhra Pradesh, but Tamil Nadu and Karnataka won’t kick things off until the first week of June.
With this, offers will be available around the second week of June.
However, the situation is poor for Totapuri as Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have also endured temperatures as high as 44°C; these areas represent 90% of Totapuri variety production.

Again, these conditions have hit flowering and fruit setting, and some farmers worry they may lose up to 60% of their crop.
Anticipation surrounding unseasonal rains between the end of the May and the first week of June only adds to this risk.
All in all, we think Totapuri production will be down 10% year-on-year.

Mexico is the world’s second-largest producer and is home to the Tommy Atkins, Atulfo and Kent varieties.
Its Tommy Atkins harvest commenced in February (in the South at the state of Chiapas) and will move north to Jalisco and Nayarit in May.
Sinaloa will soon follow, with its harvest set to conclude at the end of August.
All being well, Mexico will have around 150-200k tonnes of processed fruit available to export as individually quick frozen, dried fruit and puree.

Colombia is the third-largest mango producer, but it won’t be able to make up for India’s shortfall as its varieties are not suitable.
Three varieties are grown here: the Magdalena River variety, along with Tolima and Cundinamarca.
Heavy rains could impact the production of the latter two, but we don’t yet know how severe this will be.
Elsewhere, in Colombia’s coastal regions, harvesting got underway in April and the inland regions are set to kick things off later this month.
Unlike with India, Colombia could produce more than it did last season, and we currently think it’ll have 120k tonnes available for processing.
Increased ocean freight rates are a challenge here as well, however.

If you’re interested in buying Mango Pulp and Concentrate, please email TAguilar@czarnikow.com.