This piece, brought to you by Fruit Juice Focus, comments on fruit crop performance around the world in 2020.
By comparing this year’s data to the historic data, it paints a truly clear picture of all that’s been happening.
The update focuses on orange, grapefruit, apple, peach, necaratine and more.

Production from Florida’s forthcoming orange crop looks like it will be down on last year and output from most of the other key regions is also cutback. Will consumption push prices higher?

Floridian Orange Production

The second official report on Florida’s 2020/21 orange crop was released by the USDA this month. It upheld the first forecast from October of 57m boxes, down 15% from last season’s final production.

The initial forecast estimated the number of bearing trees for all oranges at 50.1 million. The non-Valencia forecast is 23m boxes, 22% down on last season. The estimated number of bearing trees (without Navels) is 19.1 million, down 2% from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree for early-midseason (non- Valencia) oranges is 590, a decrease of 24% from last season, and the lowest since the 1964/65 season. Projected fruit size is above average, requiring 281 pieces of fruit to fill a 90lb box. At 27%, projected droppage is above average.

The Navel forecast of 700k boxes is 13% lower than last year. The estimated number of bearing trees is 902,000, down 2% from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 194, a decrease of 18% from last season. The projected fruit size is above average, requiring 139 pieces of fruit to fill a 90lb box. Projected droppage is above average at 26%.

The Valencia forecast of 34m boxes is 10% lower than last season’s production. The estimated number of bearing trees is 30.2 million, up 2% from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 441, a decrease of 18% from last season, and the lowest since the 2006/07 season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 243 pieces of fruit to fill a 90lb box. Projected droppage is above average at 27%.

Brazilian Orange Production

The 2020/21 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt is 286.72m boxes. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.36% in relation to the estimate published in May 2020 and 25.87% lower compared with the previous crop. Approximately 20.54m boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.

Northern Hemisphere Citrus Production

A forecast by the World Citrus Organisation shows that the 2020/21 citrus Northern Hemisphere crop is expected to reach 28.7m tonnes, which represents a slight decrease of 1% compared with the 2019 crop. This lower volume is the result of the usual nature of production (rising is one year and falling the next) in some countries, as well as the impact of the droughts recorded in several production regions.

Floridian Grapefruit Production

The USDA’s first forecast for grapefruit production for Florida’s 2020/21 crop is 4.50m boxes, 7% lower than last season’s output of 4.85m boxes.

The red grapefruit forecast at 3.80m boxes is 6% less than last season’s final production. Bearing trees are 9% lower than last season’s and the average fruit per tree is 50 pieces below the 2019/20 season – it is also the lowest since the 1968/69 season. Fruit droppage is projected to be above average and fruit size is expected to be above average.

The white grapefruit forecast of 700k boxes is 11% less than last season’s final production. White grapefruit bearing trees declined by 10% from last season. The average fruit per tree is 52 pieces less than last season, but 46 pieces higher than two seasons ago.

Current fruit sizes are above average, and indications show that the final size will be above average. Final drop is expected to be slightly above average.

Korean Juice Imports

Korea imported 114k tonnes of fruit and vegetable juice in 2019, up 42% from 2015. Fruit juice accounts for 78% of all imported juice. Korea’s juice market is dominated by large domestic manufacturers. Imports, while making up less than 15% of the market, are on the rise. While the US juice still has largest market share of the juice imported, it faces strong competition.

EU Apple and Apple Juice Production

EU commercial apple production in marketing year 2020/21 is estimated at 10.8m tonnes, a 2% decrease compared with the previous year.

The decrease is due to a combination of late spring frosts (Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary), alternate bearing (France, Spain, Portugal), poor pollination (Hungary), drought/heat (Belgium, Austria, Poland, UK), and hail damage (Hungary, Romania).

Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Sweden, Denmark, the Czech Republic, and Greece reported a partial rebound from the very low production of 2019/20, but the combined increase was not large enough to compensate for the reduction elsewhere.

In 2020/21, processing use of apples is expected to increase to 3.8m tonnes, 4% higher than the previous year.

EU Grape Production

EU grape production in 2020/21 is forecast to decline by 11% on the previous year to 1.4m tonnes.

Australian Grape Production

Australia’s grape production is expected to continue to expand in 2020/21 and is forecast to reach a record 240k tonnes – up 15k tonnes from 2019/20.

Chinese Apple and Apple Juice Production

China’s apple production is forecast to decrease nearly 5% to 40.5m tonnes in 2020/21. Severe frosts during the apple flowering period in April damaged the fruit set in the key apple producing provinces in northwest China.

The USDA estimates that 3m tonnes will be processed during 2020/21 – down on the 3.6m tonnes processed the previous year.

Turkish Apple Production

2020/21, Turkey’s total apple crop is expected to increase to 4.3m tonnes, according to the Turkish Statistics Institute. This is 19% higher than the 3.6m tonnes produced the previous year.

New Zealand Apple and Apple Juice Production

New Zealand is forecast to produce a near record apple crop in 2020/21 as a result of expanded area and positive growing conditions so far. Total apple production for 2020/21 is forecast at 583k tonnes, 0.7% less than 2019/20.

Russian Apple Production

Apple production in Russia for 2020/21 is forecast at 1.54m tonnes, against 1.78m tonnes the year before.

South African Apple Production

The production of apples in South Africa is forecast to increase by 2% to 960k tonnes in 2020/21 from 942k tonnes in 2019/20. The processing industry is expected to take on 53% of this volume.

Argentinian Apple Production

Apple production in Argentina in 2020/21 is projected to remain stable at 570k tonnes.

Global Peach and Nectarine Production

World peach and nectarine production is forecast down 1.1m tonnes to 21m tonnes due to adverse weather conditions impacting output in top producers China and the European Union. Global trade is expected to contract on reduced global supplies.

Bulgarian Stone Fruit Production

Bulgaria’s stone fruit (peach and cherry) crop in 2020 is expected to increase by 5.6% to 95.2k tonnes. Cherry production is forecast higher due to increased area harvested and higher average yields.

Peach production is forecast to remain flat due to inconsistent yields caused by variable weather conditions between growing regions.