400 words / 2.5 minute reading time 

  • 25% of Maharashtra mills are not operating this season due to low cane availability resulting from a drought followed by monsoon floods.  
  • Interestingly, despite that, Maharashtra has not shown signs of tailing off, with only 8 out of 143 mills shutting into first half of February. 
  • India sugar production is on track for 26.5m tonnes; down from 33m tonnes last season.  

India Will Be Drawing Down on Stocks 

  • India has produced 17m tonnes of sugar so far compared to 21.9m tonnes last year; 23% lower YoY. 
  • The decline is in sugarcane producing regions Maharashtra and Karnataka  
  • Drought and dry reservoirs during critical cane growth period has affected agricultural yields.

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  • India is likely have production-consumption surplus of 500k. 
  • We think India will export 5m tonnes this season, finally drawing down stocks after two seasons of stock build. 

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Maharashtra: 25% of MH Mills are not crushing this season  

  • Maharashtra has produced 4.3m tonnes compared to 8.3m tonnes last year; 48% lower YoY. 
  • Only 143 mills are operating compared to 191 mills this time last year. 8 mills have completed the crush for the season.  
  • Due to dry weather, Maharashtra’s sugar production is estimated to be 50% lower year-on-year at 5.2m tonnes 

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Uttar Pradesh: In Line with Expectations 

  • Uttar Pradesh has produced 6.6m tonnes compared to 6.4m tonnes last year; 4% higher YoY. 
  • This season, there has been an increase of cane acreage planted with higher yielding cane varieties. 
  • Therefore, we expect Uttar Pradesh to produce a record crop of 12.7m tonnes of sugar.  

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Karnataka: Dry Weather to Impact Production 

  • Karnataka has produced 3.1m tonnes compared to 3.9m tonnes last year; 20% lower YoY 
  • We think Karnataka will produce 3.6m tonnes of sugar this season, 16% lower YoY compared to the 4.3m tonnes last season. 
  • Production is likely to fall as a result of dry weather impacting poorer agricultural and sucrose yields. 

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Czarnikow’s 2019/20 India Estimates 

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 Czapp’s Interactive Data Section 

To access this data in our Interactive Data section, select the tile highlighted in yellow below… 

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…and you’ll be taken to the latest crop production report.

Fiona Tan

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