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• Raw sugar nominations in Jan’20 got off to a strong start but most of these were delayed into Feb’20. 
• This is because the release of the Indonesian import permits was delayed until the end of the month. 
• Record whites shipments for a fourth quarter in Q4’19 pushed 2019 Thai whites flows to a record.  

Raws Shipments: A Large Carry 

• Jan’20 had historically high raws nominations but only 156k tonnes of these were actually shipped in Jan, making for the poorest January shipments since 2010 
• Most of the Indonesian refineries nominated a vessel in January in anticipation of the import permits being released, but these were delayed until the 31^st January, meaning they had to wait until February to load the vessels. 
• Indonesian regulation states that the import permits need to be released before the vessel can be loaded as a pre-shipment inspection needs to be conducted against the import permits received. 

• February is on track to be a very impressive month, with 507k tonnes already in the line-up. 
• 445k tonnes of these nominations are from Indonesia. 

Whites Shipments End on a High 

• After a year of steady rise, Thai whites shipments slowed down in Dec’19. 
• Despite this, Q4’19 finished as the best quarter on record for whites exports. 
• In December alone, whites shipments were up were up 110k tonnes YoY, having reached their peak of 696k tonnes in Oct’19. 

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  Whites shipments had been consistently rising since August, largely due to the large No.5 delivery we saw from Thailand. 

• Since then we have seen an increase in shipments to African countries. 

• Sudan was the main offtaker, having taken 395k tonnes this year, 90% in 2H’19. 
• However, shipments to African countries generally slowed in Dec’19. 

• Shipments of white sugar to key smuggling regions* were also down by 705k tonnes YoY. 

*Key Smuggling Regions: Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Taiwan and Vietnam 

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  In spite of this, Cambodia’s offtake increased recently, perhaps showing that smuggling through Cambodia into China is on the rise. 

• It is yet unknown how Chinese smuggling will be impacted by the Coronavirus outbreak, however.