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  • Thailand’s daily cane crushing rate is 5% lower than it was last season. 
  • We therefore expect a cane crop reduction of 30% year-on-year (YoY).  
  • This reduction has stemmed from a prolonged period of dry weather having impacted cane yields. 

Daily Crushing is Slow 

  • After a quick start to the season, the Thai mill crushing pace has fallen below the rate seen in the 18/19 season. 
  • This is despite two new mills becoming operational this year. 
  • At the current pace of 1.2m tonnes per day, we suspect that the cane will run out in less than two months (around day 110). 

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  • This is because a prolonged period of dry weather impacted the cane growth and subsequently limited the overall cane availability. 
  • Overall, we expect there to be less than 100m tonnes of cane crushed this season; this is over 30m tonnes less than the amount crushed in the prior two seasons. 

The Central Region: Crushing Pace Significantly Down 

  • The crushing pace in the central region of Thailand has been affected the most severely. 
  • The daily rate there is 15% below the maximum rate (18/19) recorded for this time of the season.  
  • This region represents about 25% of the cane crushed in Thailand. 
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Sugar Production Stays Strong 

  • Despite the slower cane crush, the rate of sugar production remains aligned with the previous years’. 

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  • This is because the cane’s sugar content is the highest it has been for the last three seasons. 

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  • This is because cane tends to have a higher concentration of sugar during dryer periods. 
  • However, purely because of the lack of cane this time around, there will still be a large drop in Thai sugar production this year; they simply don’t have enough cane to work with. 
  • We therefore forecast the total production to be 10.7m tonnes, 3.9m tonnes lower than last season. 

Track the Progress for Yourself on Czapp 

  • You can track the crop progress by using the Crop Models found in Czapp’s Interactive Data section. 
    • You are able to view both the daily and cumulative data. 
    • You can also track the cane’s progress, sugar and molasses production, as well as the Sugar Content. 

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Prapavarut Thammapala

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