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• December raws shipments from Thailand were strong after Indonesia released raw sugar import permits.
• White sugar shipments picked up in the second half of the year after the large delivery of raws in August.
• This has meant that 2019 whites shipments have rebounded, despite the poor smuggling flows.

December Raws Shipments Up! 

• Raws shipments out of Thailand were up 46k tonnes in December 2019 month-on-month (MoM).

Thai Raws Shipments

• This comes as a result of the Indonesian Raws import permit being released and a subsequent 41% increase in shipments to Indonesia.

Thai Raws Shipments to Indonesia

• Between November and December 2019, Indonesia’s raws offtake increased by 96k tonnes (from 237k to 333k).
• Despite the monthly increase, overall shipments in 2019 were lower than they were the year before.
• Indonesia offtake for instance reduced by 18% from 2018 to 2019.

Annual Thai Raws Demand

• Offtake of Thais from Malaysia did manage to buck the trend, actually increasing by 40% YoY.
• This is because Thais had been more competitive vs Brazils, the more traditional origin.

Malaysian Thai Raws Offtake

White Shipments Finish Strong

• After a year of steady rise, shipments of Thai whites remained strong in November 2019. 
• They were up 247k tonnes YoY, having reached their peak of 696k tonnes in October 2019.

Thai Whites Shipments

• Shipments since August have increased, in part, due to the large No.5 delivery we saw from Thailand.
• Since then we have seen a large increase in shipments to African countries.

Thai White Sugar Shipments to Africa (2019)

• Sudan being the main offtaker having taken 395k tonnes this year, 90% of which in 2H’19.

The Spike in Sudan’s Offtake

• Strong 2H’19 African shipments has meant that Thai whites shipments have rebounded to levels close to 2018.
• So far, with December shipments still to come, Thailand have exported 4.6m tonnes of white sugar vs. 4.8m tonnes in 2018.

Yearly Thai White Sugar Shipments

• This is despite shipments of white sugar to key smuggling countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Taiwan and Vietnam) being down by 884k tonnes YoY. 

Thai White Sugar Shipments to Smuggling Countries

• However, Cambodia’s offtake has increased recently perhaps showing that smuggling through Cambodia into China is on the rise. 

The Spike in Cambodia’s Offtake