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818k tonnes of sugar have been shipped out of India since the season started in October 2019.
472k tonnes of this is from the domestic mills in both raws and whites.
Old crop sugar has been profitable to export thus far, and we think new crop sugar exports have just become viable with the market rally.

Domestically Produced Exports

Exports from mills have started strong, with 472k tonnes having already been shipped in Q4’19.
This is 92% of last season’s Q4 exports, and we’re only halfway through December.
With exports viable at current levels and production starting, we would expect shipment pace to pick up as we enter 2020.

Monthly Mill Exports (Raw Sugar)

So far 254k tonnes of domestically produced raw sugar has been exported, either to coastal refiners or through the Government-to-Government deal with Iran.
In the 18/19 season, Iran, Bangladesh and India’s coastal refineries were all key destinations for Indian raws exports, responsible for 85% of domestic raw sugar offtake.
As of yet, Bangladesh yet to receive any exports from India. In 18/19, they were responsible for 480k tonnes of Indian raw sugar exports and will likely remain vital to ensure strong Indian sugar offtake.
With production starting and a rising No.11 price we expect exports to other regional refiners to occur in Q1’20.

Monthly Mill Exports (White Sugar)

For whites, mill exports got off to a stronger start than last season, but have slowed since moving into November and December.
Exports are currently at 218k tonnes, almost half what was shipped in Q4’18, and while December is unfinished, there is a long way to go to reach the 404k tonnes exported in the same period last year.
Key destinations such as Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Somalia have continued to offtake Indian LQWs.

India Monthly Exports

India Monthly Exports – Off to a Strong Start

Indian exports as a whole (including coastal refiners) in Q4’19, are off to a strong start, only slightly behind last seasons, with more likely to come before the end of December.

YoY Comparison of Indian Exports

Monthly Exports from Indian Coastal Refineries

The Indian coastal refiners have exported 346k tonnes so far in Q4’19, slight less than last year’s 434k tonnes shipped.
So far shipments to Somalia and Ethiopia have remained in line with last season while Sudan has almost doubled its Indian refined offtake compared to last year.
It appears that sales into the Middle East have reduced with shipments to the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan all down on Q4’18.
We are also yet to see sugar sail as far a field as West Africa as we did in 2018/19.