Insight Focus
Dry weather is affecting sugar production in CS Brazil and Russia. We forecast the US will have a large sugar beet crop in the 2024/25 season. Production is on track to be the second highest on record.
2024/25 at a Glance…
Global Sugar Production
We expect global sugar production to reach 186 million tonnes in 2024/25, down by 3.7 million tonnes from our previous estimate.
In our last report we said that production would exceed that of the 2017/18 season, following an increase in production in the world’s major sugar producers. We have since made small revisions to our numbers for CS Brazil and Russia.
Dry weather in Brazil after a dry rainy season has affected cane growth more than we anticipated. The Southern part of Russia is also experiencing extreme temperatures which in turn has stunted sugar beet growth.
Global Sugar Consumption
Global sugar consumption is rising alongside population growth. We think it will hit 180m tonnes in the 2024/25 season.
Large Production Surplus in 2024/25
Rebounds in EU and Thai sugar production as well as a possible higher output from India could result in a global sugar surplus of 5.9 million tonnes.
Global sugar stocks will therefore continue to rebuild from their 2020 lows.
Production Update: USA
in the 2024/25 season we expect the US to produce 8.4 million tonnes of sugar. This is a 200,000-tonne increase from the previous season.
This comes after an expected increase in the sugar beet crop next season, with sugar beet forecasted to reach the second-highest level on record. Although the area planted and the beet area to be harvested are forecasted to see a small decline compared to the previous season, beet yields per acre as well as beet production will be up from the previous season.
Some beet farmers were expected to possibly start the beet harvest early to accommodate for a larger crop.
