The late afternoon recovery seen yesterday provided the basis for some continuation with March’25 pushing ahead to 21.40 across the first half an hour of trading. Progress then stalled however there was an air of comfort about the move as prices simply entered into sideways consolidation across the rest of the morning and held the 21.40’s. This calm but steady demeanor encouraged additional long interest through the early afternoon and the price duly lifted a little further to reach 21.59, however the buying then dried up and a pullback to the range followed. With the delayed COT number showing the specs having sold a small amount across the reporting period to stand at -4,591 lots short there remains little appetite amongst that sector to take significant positions ahead of year end unless we see some big news, and so the failure to push too far in either direction is generally anticipated. In keeping with this there was less movement through the rest of the afternoon with only a nudge back to 21.50 and subsequent slide to settle at 21.37 to show for the efforts of those small traders still feeling inclined. This overall gain leaves the market further from the lows with more of the same thin trading likely to follow.
With No.11 values already trading higher the whites leapt to start the day above $550.00 and extend the gains to $556.10 in the following minutes, only then pausing to assess. It proved to be a short consideration before the upside resumed with a move to $558.90, with this rally having the effect of widening the March/March’25 white premium to touch at $85 before progress again stalled. What followed was several hours of calm consolidation with the gains maintained but many participants uncertain as to what the next action should be with recent movements through the range having further diminished confidence in short term directional view. Having made a marginal session high at $559.00 during the afternoon some long liquidation did take place and knock the price back to $552.50, but once concluded things settled back down with prices again holding on low volume. The last three hours saw little of interest as the flat price meandered along calmly, only falling back again during the later stages on position squaring. This left March’25 settling at $553.20 and the white premium valued lower again at $82.00 heading into midweek.
