Early trading was calm with prints a few points either side of overnight levels at the top of the board, cementing yesterday’s progress and providing a basis from which to continue building. We did not have to wait for too long before buyers arrived and by the middle of the morning March’25 had built some momentum and was closing in upon 20c despite the volumes remaining moderate. Assorted scale up pricing orders were filled in as the spot month punched through 20.00 and continued to a high at 20.19 moving through noon, though despite the progress and relative strength there was no sign that the hedge funds were covering any significant quantities of their considerable short position. With day traders now long an no continuation of the move through the early afternoon there was a retreat through 20.00 on long liquidation, which in turn dented confidence with a more aggressive burst of selling wiping out the gains in full by mid-afternoon. With March’25 attracting most of the interest still these moves led to sizable swings in the spread values with March/May’25 falling back from another recent high of 1.78 points to an afternoon low at 1.51 points. The flat price was hit again during the last couple of hours to register session lows at 19.51, and though some short covering helped the market attempt to pull away from this mark its impact was limited with the market limping towards a close at 19.57. Tomorrow marks the first day of the main index roll. Bringing larger volumes to the spread and with traders heading to Dubai over the next few days for the conference there will be much to unpick as the market awaits any consensus which may arise.
| Mar’25 | 19.70 | 20.19 | 19.51 | 19.57 | -0.19 | 19.53 | 97,163 | 308,070 |
| May’25 | 18.13 | 18.43 | 17.99 | 18.06 | -0.07 | 18.03 | 70,015 | 260,070 |
| Jul’25 | 17.74 | 18.02 | 17.63 | 17.69 | -0.07 | 17.65 | 27,265 | 159,175 |
| Oct’25 | 17.75 | 18.05 | 17.70 | 17.76 | -0.06 | 17.73 | 14,659 | 100,150 |
| Mar’26 | 18.16 | 18.39 | 18.06 | 18.12 | -0.05 | 18.08 | 8,170 | 79,288 |
| May’26 | 17.43 | 17.61 | 17.36 | 17.42 | -0.02 | 17.40 | 2,914 | 35,725 |
| Jul’26 | 17.08 | 17.21 | 17.01 | 17.07 | -0.03 | 17.06 | 2,431 | 25,501 |
| Oct’26 | 17.13 | 17.21 | 17.06 | 17.08 | -0.05 | 17.07 | 1,776 | 20,619 |
| Mar’27 | 17.47 | 17.53 | 17.41 | 17.42 | -0.06 | 17.42 | 617 | 11,720 |
| May’27 | 17.11 | 17.15 | 17.03 | 17.05 | -0.06 | 17.06 | 477 | 5,687 |
| Jul’27 | 16.90 | 16.94 | 16.88 | 16.88 | -0.06 | 16.91 | 264 | 7,010 |
| Total | 225,751 | 1,013,015 |
A small nudge higher on the opening soon petered out, however following the upward progress made this week it was not long before buyers returned to the foreground looking to take the market higher still. There was some intermittent pricing orders placed above the market which are limited in size, and the lack of any significant producer hedging meant that May’25 was able to push ahead to a $519.30 high through the course of the morning despite only attracting moderate levels of buying. With day traders loaded up on the long side and no continuation buying emerging from other sources the market started a gentle retreat through the early afternoon with the price returning to the lower teens. This dented confidence and more aggressive selling followed to push May’25 all the way down to $506.50, an unexpected turn of events which halts the upward momentum generated over the last few days. Laongside these flat price movements the March/May’25 spread traded relatively calmly, and while the range was between $18.20 / $13.50 a good deal of trading centred around the $15 area. The May/May’25 white premium did slip back towards $110.00 later in the afternoon, however it was the outright positions which continued to see most interest with attempts to stabilise through the final hour coming up short as MOC selling left May’25 settling at $508.10.
| Month | Open | High | Low | Sett | Chg | Last | Vol | O/I |
| Mar’25 | 529.40 | 536.30 | 521.10 | 522.40 | -5.90 | 521.70 | 10,707 | 25,820 |
| May’25 | 511.20 | 519.30 | 506.50 | 508.10 | -4.00 | 507.50 | 12,599 | 55,954 |
| Aug’25 | 495.00 | 500.50 | 488.40 | 490.00 | -4.10 | 488.80 | 3,347 | 21,596 |
| Oct’25 | 486.00 | 490.50 | 479.50 | 480.80 | -4.50 | 479.80 | 854 | 8,773 |
| Dec’25 | 482.80 | 487.40 | 478.30 | 479.10 | -3.70 | 478.60 | 153 | 4,101 |
| Mar’26 | 486.20 | 490.40 | 482.20 | 483.10 | -3.00 | 482.60 | 124 | 3,769 |
| May’26 | 487.70 | 490.70 | 484.10 | 485.10 | -2.30 | 484.80 | 76 | 1,702 |
| Aug’26 | 488.30 | 490.70 | 485.60 | 486.30 | -2.00 | 486.10 | 49 | 1,370 |
| Oct’26 | 486.30 | 488.50 | 484.20 | 484.50 | -2.00 | 484.30 | 48 | 830 |
| Dec’26 | 485.70 | 487.50 | 484.10 | 484.40 | -2.00 | 484.10 | 11 | 712 |
| Mar’27 | – | – | – | 485.90 | -2.10 | – | 4 | 170 |
| May’27 | – | – | – | 483.30 | -2.10 | 484.70 | – | 185 |
| Aug’27 | – | – | – | 483.10 | -2.10 | – | – | – |
| Oct’27 | – | – | – | 482.40 | -2.10 | – | – | – |
| Total | 27,972 | 124,982 |
