Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 5th March 2025

Opening buying provided some respite for the market this morning with an early rally that extended all the way to 18.51 over the course of the first hour. The rally then stalled, and while the market looked to consolidate the higher levels it was apparent that smaller traders were reluctant to play the long side in any meaningful way, so allowing values to drift back into the range across the rest of the morning. The market did look back towards the highs as the US morning got underway but came up just short, and this seemed to encourage small trader selling back to the environment with May’25 falling back and continuing to slowly erase the earlier gains. Movement remained slow, but by mid-afternoon most of the green had been removed from the board with May’25 back at 18.13 and flirting with overnight levels. Consumer / end user pricing was again in place as the 18c area approached and this proved sufficient to prevent any losses from being incurred across the rest of the day with the market supported in the teens each time that it fell back as small traders flitted in and out of positions without generating any real momentum. These same quiet conditions prevailed through to the close where some buying pushed May’25 back up to the 18.20’s and a settlement at 18.20, a modest gain with which to end the trend of lower closes as the attempt as base building continues.

Today’s opening saw an intra-day chat gap as May’25 moved through $524.00 initially and then continued ahead through the first 30 minutes to extend the gains and reach $528.10. This placed the market in its best position for a week, however with the initial hedge cover taken there was limited continuation interest around to maintain the highs and prices instead started to ease back off into the early range. The price action became a little choppier during the early afternoon as the Americas morning brought some fresh interest, however there was no material change to the drift pattern with the price continuing to slowly erode. May’25 reached a session low at $519.80 midway through the afternoon which partially filled the intra-day chart gap, then pushing back into the lower $520’s as traders looked to consolidate some of the gain and end the current run of negative sessions. This support helped the May/May’25 white premium to recover some of yesterdays loss with a return to $121.00, while for the spread May/Aug’25 was little changed in the region of $19.00. A calm conclusion saw May’25 settle at $522.00, a mild gain which provides some respite from the recent sharp losses.