Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 14th March 2025

There were small losses showing for May’25 as we opened however the market was back on a steady footing and so sufficient buying followed in to bring the price up to 19.32. Scale selling from growers remains overhead and so trading was not all one-way, a factor which became more apparent through the morning as prices moved along calmly either side of previous settlement values. There was no change to this pattern moving into the afternoon, though prospects of a calm end to the week were then ended by some sharp selling with a bear raid of around 4,000 lots sending May’25 tumbling through the morning lows to touch 18.75 ibn quick time. A solid recovery followed on short covering / bargain hunting to bring the value back over 19.00, although the recovery stalled at 19.10 leaving the market to enter a new consolidation phase to the centre of the wider range. The sideways pattern endured until the final 15 minutes at which stage buyers returned in an attempt to dress the market ahead of the weekend. Their efforts reduced the net losses as May’25 settled at 19.19 and maintained stable footing ahead of tonight’s COT report which is widely expected to bring some reduction in the net spec short number, the size of which may well have impact upon the next movement.

The day started positively with May’25 punching up to $543.20 on physical hedging, though the gains were not maintained once the necessary cover had been taken and the price returned to overnight levels with barely an hour having elapsed. With smaller traders now dominating proceedings again the rest of the morning saw values edge back to the mid $530’s, but despite this representing a moderate loss the overall sentiment remained quietly steady. The quiet was only broken during the afternoon when an effort to recover ended abruptly with an aggressive push back down to $530.90, though the market regathered to consolidate once again. This movement led to some significant swing in the May/May’25 white premium as it recovered from morning lows at $113.00 to be trading back above $117.00, though for the spread things were far calmer with the board holding relatively flat. Calmer trading resumed through the afternoon with May’25 holding a dollar or two lower until the closing stages drew one more burst of activity through renewed buying. This took May’25 back through $540.00 to post a technically strong close at $541.50 which places the market well to try and continue the current rally when we resume. May/May’25 meanwhile headed into the weekend at $118.40 while May/Aug’25 was little changed at $14.40.