Opening trades saw May’25 print as high as 19.63, however there was only limited buying on show and once completed the price started to struggle and moved into the red. Support only started to be seen as the price fell into the 19.20’s, and while it was proving enough to prevent additional losses from being recorded there was minimal interest being seen to take the price back higher again. For several hours May’25 edged sideways in the 19.20’s and 19.30’s, and it was only during the later part of the afternoon that prices recovered from a 19.22 low and spiked to 19.57 on relatively modest buying / short covering. Bulls will have been disappointed that this did not spark any additional buying reaction as instead the market turned back lower, providing further fuel to the view that a period needs to be spent consolidating before the market is ready to make its next move. Reaching the close May’25 was trading below 19.40 while May/Jul’25 was back below 0.30 points, with trading still featureless in a low news environment. May’25 settled at 19.35, ending a very slow session and suggesting a continuation of neutral trading for the time being. 

 

May’25 dropped back down to the lower $540’s on the opening as buyers suddenly proved difficult to find and quickly settled down into a narrow trading band with the market finding little interest from either side. This malaise then endured for several hours with smaller traders showing minimal interest in proceedings, the return to rangebound activities clearly not inspiring many from taking positions for fear that they will potentially be swung out at a loss should anyone try and influence short term direction. Lows were recorded at $539.30 as prices edged down by a tiny amount during the early afternoon however the tedium was such that there appeared little prospect of significant movement either way. The quiet ended with an afternoon push back up to $545.00, though with no obvious reason for the market to rally and movement based on low volume the price reversed back down towards $540.00 ahead of the close. Despite the slow outright activity, we did see volume at respectable levels due to May/Aug’25 rolling, where more than 5.000 lots changed hands across the session and further narrowed the differential to $8.80 in the process. An appropriately quiet close saw May’25 settle at $540.30, while May/Aug’25 was valued at $9.10 to maintain this week’s sideways/lower sentiment.   

 

Jon Whybrow

Jon joined CZ in 1991, working in the Treasury department before moving to join the derivatives team in 1994. Over 30 years Jon has built up significant experience across derivatives markets and products, particularly sugar, and is now Head of Flow derivatives providing market execution services for CZ’s global client base. He is responsible for the market commentaries which are published each day on CZ app.

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