Daily Market Price Updates and Commentary 8th January 2024

Raw Sugar Updates

Having fallen back to 4-week lows yesterday the market found some light buying to commence the day slightly higher, however the gains were brief and May’25 soon slipped back to 18.60 once the initial cover had been taken. Smaller traders then dominated outright movements through the morning as they briefly chased May’25 up to 18.84 before it returned to deficit on liquidation, though the environment was thin with most volume being generated by the ongoing May/Jul’25 roll. For the next few hours, the price action remained within the confines of the early range as traders remained cautious of taking on much exposure, though the early afternoon did see a degree of fresh interest take the price up to a daily high at 18.87 with the enthusiasm driven by generally higher commodity macro values. The move proved to be brief and regardless of what was happening elsewhere the price soon slipped back to sit ahead of the lows and raise more questions as to the overall market stability. These were well founded when a break of the earlier 18.60 low triggered off more selling and sent the price sliding into the 18.30’s before any respite was received, though this merely involved holding the lows until the later stages. More aggressive selling returned ahead of the closing call to settle May’25 weakly at 18.31 on route to an 18.26 low, which leaves the technical picture appearing vulnerable to additional near-term losses. 

White Sugar Updates

Aug’25 has been on a negative path across the past few sessions and that maintained during early trading with a drop back to $518.20. A brief pause in the decline followed before the market lowered to $517.30, though overall the day was proving to be calm with less selling pressure than we have been seeing. Moving into the afternoon the market appeared to be boosted by more general macro strength as buying returned and took the price to a new daily high at $522.80, though still there appeared to be little real buying behind the move and the value soon dropped back to the range. May/Aug’25 was continuing to find a decent amount of rolling ahead of next week’s expiry and traded between $11.40 and $13.50 with both sides reasonably matched, though the same couldn’t be said for the white premiums which were already trading lower before the market came under fresh pressure later in the afternoon. Aug’25 was sold down to $512.00 as the Aug/Jul’25 nestled just ahead of $110.00, the reversal coming as the macro eased away from highs and underlying the ongoing lack of any noteworthy support. Though the market tried to hold this level there was further pain inflicted onto the Aug’25 contract heading into the close as lows were made at $510.60, with a settlement value of $511.10 leaving the chart vulnerable to another look toward $500 and then the March low at $494.90.