市场热点和观点

 2019年国际原糖市场仍处于过剩状态。而萎靡的需求使得过剩不能有效解决。价格可能进一步下行。 

郑糖在4月上半月回升后快速回吐涨势,主要是因为加大进口配额和许可发放的传闻,以及巴基斯坦白糖的到港及放储传闻的再次提及。得益于盘面上涨时套保盘的进场,四月产销数据表现不错,总体而言目前国内供应压力同比有所减轻,国内供需相对平衡,但是对国际盘的担忧使得市场情绪偏空。 

郑糖和纽约原糖价格走势 

产销追踪  

  • 截至4月底产量为1068万吨,比去年同期高47万吨,最终产量预估为1080万吨。 
  • 54%食糖已售,销量比去年同期高约100万吨,得益于走私减少,进口后延以及4月价格上涨时对郑糖套保量的增加。 
  • 工业库存同比减少56万吨,在许可仍未发放,走私未见增量的情况下,目前供应压力同比减轻。   

食糖进口  

  • 截至3月底,中国共进口13吨原糖和7万吨白糖。除了古巴原糖,其余原糖大部分存放于保税仓。 
  • 许可发放之前,市场上的加工糖供应仍然极为有限。  

Rosa Li

Rosa graduated from Jinan University in 2012 with a bachelor’s degree in Marketing. Rosa joined CZ in 2014 and has been an analyst for 7 years in our Guangzhou office managing the data capture, analysis and visualisation within the Chinese sugar markets utilising her skills in SQL, Python and VBA while also providing content for our platform CZ App. Rosa is also responsible for the localization of CZ App in China – CZ App WeChat, she also assists with the commercial marketing in China and works towards strategy with the trading team.

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