Insight Focus
- Processed phosphate price increases coming to a halt.
- Potash rates are stable in the west but increasing in the east.
- Ammonia prices go up with Tampa’s September contract up USD 95 PMT.
The international urea market is under enormous pressure with price declines across the board and buyers in the driver seat. Indonesia urea tender saw granular urea price drop to USD 367 PMT FOB from previous price of USD 392 PMT FOB although both these prices could be said to be outliers since 2nd highest prices substantially below. Both cargoes are said to be for the Australian market which has seen a need for end of season demand.
Buyers in Brazil are taking advantage of floaters from Nigeria, Venezuela and other origins with prices reported as low as USD 345 PMT CFR with bids down to USD 335 PMT CFR. Iran held a tender this week expecting a floor price of USD 330 PMT FOB but bids came in at USD 310 PMT FOB. Although Iran is a sanctioned origin, exports in August were a healthy 550 KT with destinations of Brazil, Turkey, India, Africa as well as Asia.
Imports of urea to Thailand through July was 1.43 million MT up 15% year on year with SABIC supplying 573 KT and Malaysia with 333 KT and Qatar with 303 KT.
Vietnam imports were up 96% from January to June reaching 172.9 KT, up from 88 KT year on year. Vietnamese exports fell 78.4% to 105.1 KT from 446.4 KT year on year.
China is in the midst of exporting the contracted tender volume to India and it is reported that China may ship a total of 26 vessels with volume up to 1.25 million MT which is above the 1.1 million MT reported from the tender results in India.
The outlook for the urea market is soft and it is expected that prices may erode more in the next few weeks unless India comes back into the market with another mega tender.
The processed phosphate market has come to a halt due to seasonality, tight supply, sufficient stocks and relatively high prices. India imports have dried up with prices now sitting at USD 550-560 PMT CFR. MAP prices in Brazil have come to a halt at USD 530-535 PMT CFR up from a low of USD 425 PMT CFR on June 22nd 2023. Chinese exports are restricted by the government to ensure sufficient product is available for NPK producers for fall application.
Bangladesh has awarded its DAP tender of various processed phosphates with a DAP of 280 KT with price range between USD 649-680 CFR.
The outlook for the processed phosphate market is stable to higher prices until China is expected to come back in Q4 with increased exports putting pressure on prices.
Finally, the India revised MOP contract price was revealed at USD 319 PMT CFR coming down from the initially agreed price of USD 422 PMT CFR – this on the back of CANPOTEX contract price in India at USD 306 PMT CFR.
Brazil’s benchmark MOP price remained unchanged at USD 350-360 PMT CFR up from USD 325 PMT CFR on June 22nd.
SE Asia standard grade MOP prices saw a lift this week on the back of higher prices in China and LAOS withdrawing offers at USD 290 PMT CFR. Current price range is assessed at USD 300-320 PMT CFR whilst granular MOP is at USD 360-380 PMT CFR.
Vietnam imports of MOP for the January to June period dropped 44.9% to 258.2 KT down from 468.6 KT.
The outlook for the potash market is flat to stable.
The global ammonia market is firmer with tight supply and volatility of TTF gas in Europe. Contract price between Yara and MOSAIC for September is up USD 95 PMT to USD 390 PMT CFR.
TTF on August 31st closed at USD 9.62 MMBTU which saw equivalent ammonia production cost in Europe at USD 390 CFR. Imports are now at around the USD 420-450 PMT CFR thus it could well be that ammonia production in Europe could resume in earnest.
Morocco imports of ammonia fell for the January to June period to 646 KT down from 926.1 KT.
The outlook for the ammonia market is steady to firm on the back of tight supply and increased demand.
