• The WASDE has reduced the domestic sugar crops; this is likely to result in an adjustment of domestic demand. 
  • Alternatively, Mexico may be given a 38kmt allowance into the US market. 
  • Mexico still needs to export 1mmt to the world market. 

April WASDE Release  

  • The USDA has reduced domestic production in the latest WASDE release by 43k tonnes. 
  • We think that the USDA is more likely to reduce domestic demand (consumption) in future WASDE releases to restore stocks to the mandated 13.5% 
  • Therefore, we don’t expect an increase in imports to the US. 
  • Mexico, with their reduced access unlikely to increase, will need to export nearly 1mmt to the world market in 2019 to maintain normal domestic stocks. 
  • So far we have seen 105k tonnes shipped from Mexico to the world market in 2019 to Morocco and Azerbaijan (via Georgia) mostly.  
  • The need for exports and HFCS imports from the USA continues to be a problematic issue in Mexico with farmer demonstrations continuing. 

Vincent O’Rourke

Vincent began his career at CZ in 2016 as an analyst in the London Office, focusing on raw sugar flows and the Refineries in North Africa and the Middle East. Since 2019 Vincent has moved to the Miami office, leading the Americas analysis (excluding Brazil) and implementing the new data capture and database processes. Vincent graduated from Edinburgh with a master’s in theology in 2015 and completed a Masters in Emerging Economies from King’s London University in 2016

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