- Argentina should produce 1.55mmt of sugar in 2021/22, down 280kmt year-on-year.
- Dry weather through the winter hindered cane development.
- Exports could therefore be down 20kmt year-on-year.
Argentinian Sugar Production to Hit Five-Year Low
- We think Argentina will produce 1.55m tonnes of sugar next season.
- This is a 280k tonne drop year-on-year and Argentina’s poorest production since 2017/18.

- A dry winter in Tucuman, Argentina’s main cane region, hindered cane development.
- Although Argentina produces sugar throughout the year, these winter rains are crucial for yields (especially Nov-Feb).

Note: You can view this weather in the Interactive Data Section.
- We therefore think it’ll produce just 20m tonnes of cane in 2021/22, down 1.33m tonnes year-on-year.

- A large amount of this should go towards Argentina’s ethanol and alcohol producers as the Government recently approved a 56% ethanol price increase to encourage oil refiners to mix it with gasoline.
Will This Be Enough to Satisfy Domestic Demand?
- Yes. Sugar alternatives, notably sweeteners, are becoming more popular in Argentina now the population’s more aware of the link between excessive sugar consumption and poor health.
- We therefore think sugar consumption will remain flat at 1.55m tonnes.

Will Argentina Be Able to Export Sugar?
- Argentina should still export 220k tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, down 20k tonnes year-on-year.
- We think this drop is directly linked to its smaller production.

- Most of the sugar Argentina exports should go to the US (largely via the Tariff Rate Quota) and Chile.
- We think just 20-30k tonnes of bulk raw sugar will go to the world market.
How Will Argentina’s Closing Stocks Shape Up?
- This season’s closing stocks should be higher than normal, at 240k tonnes, thanks to strong prices and yields.
- However, by the end of 2021/22, it could have as little 85k tonnes, on the back of flat consumption and reduced production.

Other Opinions You Might Be Interested In…
- How Will Argentina’s White Grape Perform After the Cold Winter?
- Central American Raws Exports Wind Down
