• Argentina should produce 1.55mmt of sugar in 2021/22, down 280kmt year-on-year.
  • Dry weather through the winter hindered cane development.
  • Exports could therefore be down 20kmt year-on-year.

Argentinian Sugar Production to Hit Five-Year Low

  • We think Argentina will produce 1.55m tonnes of sugar next season.
  • This is a 280k tonne drop year-on-year and Argentina’s poorest production since 2017/18.
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  • A dry winter in Tucuman, Argentina’s main cane region, hindered cane development.
  • Although Argentina produces sugar throughout the year, these winter rains are crucial for yields (especially Nov-Feb).
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Note: You can view this weather in the Interactive Data Section.

  • We therefore think it’ll produce just 20m tonnes of cane in 2021/22, down 1.33m tonnes year-on-year.
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  • A large amount of this should go towards Argentina’s ethanol and alcohol producers as the Government recently approved a 56% ethanol price increase to encourage oil refiners to mix it with gasoline.

Will This Be Enough to Satisfy Domestic Demand?

  • Yes. Sugar alternatives, notably sweeteners, are becoming more popular in Argentina now the population’s more aware of the link between excessive sugar consumption and poor health.
  • We therefore think sugar consumption will remain flat at 1.55m tonnes.
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Will Argentina Be Able to Export Sugar? 

  • Argentina should still export 220k tonnes of sugar in 2021/22, down 20k tonnes year-on-year.
  • We think this drop is directly linked to its smaller production.
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  • Most of the sugar Argentina exports should go to the US (largely via the Tariff Rate Quota) and Chile.
  • We think just 20-30k tonnes of bulk raw sugar will go to the world market.

How Will Argentina’s Closing Stocks Shape Up?

  • This season’s closing stocks should be higher than normal, at 240k tonnes, thanks to strong prices and yields.
  • However, by the end of 2021/22, it could have as little 85k tonnes, on the back of flat consumption and reduced production.
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Stephanie Rodriguez

Stephanie graduated from Babson College in 2020, with a bachelor’s degree in Operations Management and Data Analytics. She joined CZ in 2020 for a one year internship where she focused on developing dashboards, content and expanding our network in the Americas (excluding Brazil). Stephanie is responsible for writing content and capturing data for the Americas (excluding Brazil), presenting our market view to clients, and working on different consultancy projects.

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