- In this week’s Ask the Analyst, we share our production estimates for Brazilian orange in 2021/22.
- Brazil suffered both drought and frost this year, and its orange orchards suffered as a result.
- If you’d like us to answer one of your questions in an upcoming edition, please email jack@czapp.com.
How Much Orange Will Brazil Produce in 2021/22?
We think Brazil will produce 267.87m boxes (40.8kg each) of orange this season, down 26.3m boxes from earlier estimates.
This is because Brazil has been hit by its worst drought in 91 years this season. The drought was made worst by frosty conditions, which hit orchards across the country.
With these conditions, droppage rates have been extremely high but, sadly, the fruits that have dropped have been extremely small. In more severe cases, some less mature trees died when the weather was at its worst.
As it stands, harvesting is around 27% of the way complete, down 7% from the historic average. The trees’ sporadic flowering has hindered field operations. This means Brazilian orange processors will receive less fruit this year. The country’s juice stocks should therefore drop to below 200k tonnes, even with stronger juice yields, which are typical of drier seasons.
Orange production must rebound to 330m boxes next season if global supply is to remain stable. Farmer returns could increase with this in mind.
If you have any questions, please get in touch with us at Jack@czapp.com
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
Brazil’s Orange Production Looks Worse Than We’d Anticipated
