Insight Focus
- Russian beet molasses exports plummet following its invasion of Ukraine.
- Next supply opportunity comes from EU in September.
- Beet molasses market to remain right through 2022 with no end to conflict in sight.
Economic sanctions on Russia and war concerns in the Black Sea have caused Russia’s beet molasses exports to dramatically fall.
Each year, 250k tonnes of beet molasses are exported via the Black Sea and Sea of Asov ports. This could fall to 100k tonnes or lower in 2022 due to shipping and sanctions concerns.
Globally traded beet molasses exports (via sea vessel) are estimated at 900-950k tonnes per year, with Russia accounting for approximately 30% of supply. This cannot be readily replaced; the EU is currently in the off crop with limited stocks and Morocco is not expected to export beet molasses in 2022. The short-term supply is currently available from Egypt where the crop started in March and will continue until June. Prices in Egypt have rapidly increased in response to the tightening supply situation for beet molasses.
Looking further ahead in 2022, the next supply opportunity will be the EU’s new-crop 2022 beet molasses from September onwards. It does not appear that the Ukraine crisis will be resolved quickly, implying that sanctions on Russia will remain a feature of the market throughout 2022.
Tightness in the beet molasses market should be a persistent feature of the 2022 market. It will be increasingly important to monitor planted areas and yield estimates for the EU’s 2022 sugar beet crop, which will determine the supply trajectory for September 2022 onwards.
Other Insights That May Be of Interest…
News Review: Inflation & Economic Growth Warnings on Ukraine Crisis
How the Ukraine Crisis and Rising Inflation Hits Molasses
Explainers That May Be of Interest…
