With 17.5 million Cbios emitted, the market expectation is that all distributors should meet their targets for 2020.
Around 70% of the Cbio requirements were bought by distributors so far.
With less than a month for the deadline, this could push prices higher.

Supply vs Demand

Up till now more than 17 million of Cbios were emitted, above the target required for the distributors of 14.5 million.
Still, Unica forecasts the total emission could surpass 18mi – a volume well above the target needed from the distributors.

Until 7th December, 10.3 million CBIOs were bought by distributors – 71% of this year target.
Considering the deadline of 31st of December, demand could pick up in the coming weeks.
This could help push Cbio prices higher.

Latest Updates

The past two months saw Cbio prices reach a record of BRL64.6/Cbio to then fall back to under BRL40/Cbio
One of the reasons for the retraction was request filed by a group of distributors to decrease another 25% of this years’ targets – remember that the 2020 target was already cut down 50%.
The request was overruled, maintaining the current targets for all distributors.

However, we have not seen the end of the story yet.
Changes in the program are still requested by distributors and are currently under analysis.
Among them are price ceiling for Cbios, requirement targets for the Cbio emitters and possibility of other entities emitting Cbios.

RenovaBio is the Brazilian national program of biofuels launched in 2016
The program’s main instrument is, in conformity with the Paris Agreement, the establishment of annual national decarbonization targets for the fuel sector.
The national targets will be broken into mandatory individual targets for fuel distributors
To meet their target, the fuel distributors will need to buy Cbios certificates in the stock exchange
Each CBIO emitted by biofuel producers corresponds to one ton of carbon that is no longer emitted into the atmosphere.