• India is weighing on the market with up to 6m tonnes of sugar eligible for export subsidy.
  • Combined with surplus sugar in Thailand that looks set to be rolled into 2020, the market is oversupplied
  • Meanwhile, Chinese white sugar demand via smuggling (once the largest annual flow) remains slow.
  • Poor weather across India, Thailand and the EU has so far not been enough to significantly reduce the oversupply.
  • However, if India fails to export significant volumes through 2020, the outlook becomes more balanced.

No.5 Price