- Couples in China are now allowed to have three children, up from two before.
- This is because its ageing population is growing, whilst its birth rate is slowing.
- If China’s population starts to decline, sugar consumption could follow suit.
China’s New Three-Child Policy
- China recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop for the fourth year running.
- The Government’s therefore announced that couples can have three children, in attempt to address concerns regarding its ageing population and slowing birth rate.
- However, it’s not guaranteed this policy change will speed up population growth.
- Five years ago, the Government told couples they could have two children, but this didn’t bring as many newborns as anticipated.
What Does China’s New Policy Mean for Sugar Consumption?
- In theory, China’s sugar consumption should grow in line with its population and economic growth.
- However, if China’s population falls in the coming years, sugar consumption could follow suit.
- Low fertility rates lead to an elderly population, which tends to consume less sugar for health reasons.
- This may also mean China’s consumption of sugar alternatives continues to rise.
Some Positives: Urbanisation and a Growing Economy
- Although China’s population growth remains an area of uncertainty, we think sugar consumption will grow in the next five years.
- This is because urbanisation has increased peoples’ access to sugary food and beverage products.
- And, as China’s average income continues to grow, more will be able to justify buying these products.
- However, its per capita consumption should remain one of the lowest in the world.
- This is because China’s home to very rich and very poor provinces, meaning consumption trends wildly differ across regions.
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