- It looks like 20/21 could end sooner than expected, 3 mills have stopped this fortnight.
- This is due to the strong crushing pace result of the dry spell.
- It also takes a toll on cane harvested from now on as a drop in agricultural yield.
Summary Table 1H September
Pushing the Pace of Operations
- In this fortnight, crush was able to progress without interruptions due to excellent weather conditions.
- Total crush was 44mmt – 12% higher yoy – taking total cumulative crush to 459mmt, which is the highest on record for the period
CS Daily Crush per Fortnight – keeping the pace
- We reiterate that the crush level is a reflection of dry weather and not necessarily cane availability.
- According to UNICA, 3 mills have reported the early end of operations already in the 1H of September.
- And we are afraid that could be the case for several mills in the upcoming fortnights.
Cane Health
- Even though UNICA states in its report that the crush is around 75% done – which would translate into a total projected for the season of over 610mmt – we find ourselves a bit sceptical of a crush higher than last year.
- So far, ag yields data have not showed the impact of the drier weather due to the cane stage and cane age – younger canes have been responsible for a great share of the harvest so far.
CS Variation from Hist. Average Rains – from April until September, rains this season are 36% lower
- However, since April rains are 36% below historical average.
- This pattern affects specially cane to be harvested at the end of the season.
- Is a sudden end to 2020/21 season in the works?
ATR Keeps Rising
- On the other hand, dry weather helps the sugar concentration in cane, ATR reached 159.1kg/ton in the 1H of September – this is the highest levels since 2010 and a 3.2% increase yoy.
- The combination of high ATR, good pace of operations and production mix maximized to sugar output, the sweetener production reached a cumulative of 29mmt.
CS Fortnightly ATR – Highest level since 2010
- Mills are expected to remain maximizing cane allocation to sugar production.
Ethanol Market
- In the 1H September, mills reported 813mi litres of total hydrous ethanol sales.
- It seems as hydrous reached a ceiling in sales, having averaged around 800mi litres per fortnight in the past 2 months.
CS Monthly Hydrous Domestic Sales – slow recovery
