Main points 

  • By the end of June, we had the biggest drop in productivity since 2011, a 12% drop yoy.
  • On the other hand, the drought has helped to increase the ATR, 141.81kg/tc in this fortnight.
  • The parity at pumps (76%) encourages strong sales of anhydrous.

Crop 2021/22 – 2H June 

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Strong Crushing and Sugar Concentration 

  • With dry weather, we had good operational efficiency in the fields. In 2H June, 45 mmt of cane were processed – 2 mm greater than the 20/21 fortnight.
  • However, the volume of cane crushed since the beginning of the harvest remains below 2020/21, -8.45%, 210.93 mmt vs. 230.4mmt.
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  • Preliminary data from UNICA indicates a drop in agricultural productivity this month to 80 ton/ha.
  • Until June, the TCH presents a cumulative loss of almost 12% yoy – worst reduction since 2011.
  • The dry weather negatively affects agricultural productivity, but it is advantageous for the quality of the plant.
  • In this fortnight, the sugar concentration in the plant was strong and in line with our estimates – 141.8 kg/tc
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  • The frost reports started on 06/30 so we believe that the main impacts of the event should only be reflected in the next fortnight.

Ethanol Market 

  • The production of anhydrous ethanol continues to grow – in this fortnight, 3.42 billion liters were produced
  • The average parity in São Paulo is 76% – a level at which hydrous ethanol is no longer considered attractive for the driver
  • As a result, the demand for anhydrous (which is blended with gasoline) remains high compared to last year.
    • biofuel sales registered an increase of 27.86% with 849.93 mml
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Catarina Junqueira

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