• Sugarcane crushing and sugar production reached record levels – 564.9 mmt and 36.4mmt, respectively.
  • So far, 63 plants have finished their operations.
  • Development concerns for next season are on the table.

Summary Table 2H October  

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Close to the end 

  • Although the crush in the fortnight was 18% below yoy, cumulative crush is 4% above last season at 564.9mmtc – a record for the period.
  • Despite the lower crush, another fortnight of strong ATR allowed sugar prodcution to reach 1.7mmt taking total sugar output so far to 36.4mmt.

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  • Mills have started to slow down the pace of crush
  • Similar to last season, CS is moving towards an early closure.
  • By the end of October, 63 plants have finished their activities.

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• In this fortnight, the signs of the dry spell experienced throughout the 20/21 season started to become more evident for the first time.

• October preliminary data puts agricultural yields (tc / ha) down by 4.3%, resulting in a TCH Average of 64.6.

• We don’t see crush surpassing 595mmt.

Development Concerns for 21/22 

  • The dry spell also is cause for concerns for 21/22 season.
  • Some areas have cumulative rains since April down by 48%.
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  • With the signs of the impact of the drought, we raise the flag once again for the risk of sugarcane development.
  • If the rains in the coming months are below average, the availability of sugarcane on 21/22 runs the risk of being below the current projection of 580mmt

Ethanol Market 

  • Hydrous sales by the mills registered,1.87 bi litres in October, 13% decrease yoy.
  • The retraction observed in October was below the values registered until now.
  • This shows a better sign of recovery of the consumption of the biofuels.
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Catarina Junqueira

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