Main Points 

  • Near the end of operations, CS reached 467 mmt of processed sugarcane by 2H of September.
  • The region so far has a cumulative production of 29.19 mm of sugar and 22.79 billion of ethanol.
  • So far 36 mills have completed their harvest, and another 52 units are expected to close in the next fortnight.

 

Crop 2021/22 – 2H September 

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Accelerated Harvest 

  • The amount of cane processed at the end of September was 35.8 mtc – 11% less than the same fortnight in 2020.
  • With this, until the end of September, CS reached an accumulated crushing of 467.44 mtc against 501.88 mtc last year.
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  • The reduction in crushing is a direct result of the low availability of sugarcane in this cycle, a reflection of the drop in agricultural productivity:
  • Preliminary data released by UNICA indicate that the drop in the first half of the month is 21% yoy:
    • 58.2 mtc/ha against 74 mtc/ha.
  • However, we still need to wait for the closed value for the month of September to compare recorded versus estimated.
  • September sugarcane was one of the most affected by drought and frost, and we expect a drop of at least 20%.

Mills near closing  

  • With the lower availability of sugarcane, the mills are ending the harvest earlier.
  • So far 36 mills have closed their harvest operations – versus 5 last year.
  • Most of the mills that have ended the 21/22 cycle are in the state of São Paulo, which was the most impacted by the effects of drought, frost and lately fires.
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  • According to UNICA, another 52 mills are expected to end their operations in the next fortnight

 

Ethanol market – anhydrous continues with the preference 

  • As in the previous fortnights, the mills continue to prioritize the production of anhydrous
  • Despite the retraction in crushing, the production of anhydrous ethanol remains strong, reaching 8.8 billion liters in the accumulated – an increase of 24% compared to 2020.
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  • In September, 954 million liters were sold – almost 20% more compared to 20/21
  • Direct reflection of the return of movements on the streets and with it increased demand for fuel.
  • More specifically, recovery of gasoline, since hydrous is at a disadvantage with the parity at the pumps (average São Paulo) around 78%.

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Catarina Junqueira

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